OPEN SOURCE HUMINT ANALYSIS [OSHA]-Iran: 2005 AUGUST 14
President Bush's recent remarks stating that the
To that end German Chancellor Gerhard Schoder has made resistance to a military solution for
Nations with warheads in
Hitting record highs of $67 a barrel a massive wealth transfer to oil producing states is underway. Unfortunately, the recent increase in clashes between a restive Iranian populace and state security forces indicates that the surplus revenues the country are experiencing are not being spent on education and social services domestically. Instead, greater Iranian aggression in neighboring
IAEA NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS
Schroder Starts Campaign With Attack: AP via Moscow Times,
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder: "But take the military options off of the table; we have seen that they're not suitable," Schroder said, in apparent reference to U.S. President George W. Bush's statement on Friday that "all options are on the table."
Iran, Germanys largest market in Middle East: Iran Mania,
U.S. Senator John McCain: "I guess my point is, for us to say that the Iranians can do whatever they want to do, and we won't, under any circumstances, exercise a military option, would be for them to have a license to do whatever they want to do," he said. "So, I think the president's comments that we wouldn't take the [military] option off the table was entirely appropriate."
Iran vows to defy Sept. 3 nuke deadline: CBS News, Last Updated Sun,
Hamid Reza Asefi: "
Nuclear trace tests may back Iran's case: The Age, August 15, 2005 - 6:24AM
Mohamed ElBaradei: "All declared (nuclear) material in Iran is under verification, but we still are not in a position to say that there is no undeclared nuclear material or activities in Iran," IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei told reporters after an emergency meeting of the IAEA's governing board last week. "With regard to the country as a whole, the jury is still out," he added.
POLITICAL ASCENTION OF IRANs REVOLUTIONARY GUARD (IRGC)
Hardliners take key offices, Only one of Khatami's reformists to stay on: Bangkok Post,
Ali Reza Rajaei & Saeed Madani: ``All those who worked against Khatami's reformist agenda have now been nominated to sit in the government,'' the reformist writer Ali Reza Rajaei said. ``Most of them are either former military commanders or people in close touch with security agencies.'' Political scientist Saeed Madani agreed, saying that the appointment of people associated with security forces to executive positions would retard
Hard-liners dominate new
Revolutionary Guards and allies sweep
"There is not one minister in this cabinet who could be described as a moderate", said Ali Tavassoli, an Iranian affairs analyst based in
USADI Calls for Immediate Referral of Irans Nuclear Case to Security Council: USADI,
Playing with fire: Washington Times, August 12, 2005
Raymond Tanter: "There is evidence from independent sources that Iran is fueling the insurgency," said Raymond Tanter, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, co-chair of the Iran Policy Committee, who served on the staff of the National Security Council from 1981-82. "The Middle East Media Research Institute reported in January that a former commander of an insurgent group, Army of Muhammad, said, 'The truth is that Iran has played a significant role in supporting the Army of Muhammad and many factions of the resistance.'"
Iran backing Iraqi insurgent bombers - Time report: Reuters,
Shiaas have Opposed Al Hakim's Call for Establishing a Shiite Federal Region - Sunnis felt "Shock and Fear": AlMendhar,
Jamal Eddin: In an interview with Al Sharq Al Awsat on the phone from his office in
Shiaas have Opposed Al Hakim's Call for Establishing a Shiite Federal Region - Sunnis felt "Shock and Fear": AlMendhar,
Saleem Abdullah, leader in the Iraqi Islamic party and member in the constitution drafting committee, said, "This call confirms the reality of the worries of Arab Sunnis with regard to the existence of a division operation of the country into several regions, which are granted wide-scale competence." He continued, "Resorting to the gradual division of the country from provinces into regions is not based on a detailed studies and this is a rejected matter on our behalf."
US, UK get blame for Iran unrest: Aljazeera.net, Sunday 14 August 2005, 21:49 Makka Time, 18:49
Vahed Qaribian, Kurdish activist: "Peace has returned to the area, but security is tight. Dozens of activists are still in jail," he said. Those jailed include Ajlal Ghavami, Saeed Jalali and Roya Toloui, a women's rights activist. Human Rights Watch (HRW) said the security forces wounded hundreds when they opened fire in Mahabad on demonstrators who were protesting against the police killing of a Kurdish activist, Shivan Qaderi, on 9 July.
5,000 in southern
"Every Kurd in every part of
IRAN - PETROLEUM MARKET
Oil Prices Hit Record Near $67: AP via PetroleumIran,
Mike Fitzpatrick: "This is a bubble that will have to burst at some point," said Mike Fitzpatrick, an oil broker at Fimat
ROUND-UP: IRAN'S NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES
Following are experts who can comment on
**1. IVAN ELAND, senior fellow at THE INDEPENDENT INSTITUTE: "If economic sanctions are placed on
**2. THOMAS ALAN SCHWARTZ, professor of history at VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY: "As leaders of
**3. SCOTT JONES, senior research associate at the UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIAs Center for International Trade and Security: "
**4. MITCHELL REISS, vice-provost for international relations at the COLLEGE OF WILLIAM & MARY, is an expert on nuclear non-proliferation: "At every step of the two-year negotiating process, the EU-3 has merely reacted as
**5. CHARLES PENA, director of defense policy studies at CATO INSTITUTE: "Economic sanctions -- like economic incentives -- are unlikely to have much effect on
**6. ILAN BERMAN, vice president of the AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY COUNCIL and author of "Tehran Rising: Iran's Challenge to the United States," is an expert on regional security in the Middle East, Central Asia and the Russian Federation: "Iran has emerged as a major player in the Middle East and a growing challenge to the United States. In the
**7. MAHMOOD MONSHIPOURI, Ph.D., professor of political science in the
**8. ANDREW KARAM, research assistant professor of biological science at the ROCHESTER INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, can field questions on the scientific aspects of uranium enrichment. Karam has been following uranium enrichment for some time, and has some direct experience with uranium enrichment in the
Press Briefing by National Security Advisor Steve Hadley, August 11, 2005 -- Excerpt
Q Steve, what was the thinking on Iran? We've heard some disturbing information from Secretary Rumsfeld this week about very sophisticated, powerful bombs being smuggled from Iran into Iraq. We've seen Iran now restart uranium enrichment. We've seen Iran say that the Paris Accord is now defunct. The IAEA has passed a resolution condemning the activities and calling for more talks. What kind of communications, either directly or through channels, has the U.S. government had with Iran about its activities and along the border with Iraq? And is there any kind of a connection that might be drawn between the posture the Iranian government takes in both areas?
MR. HADLEY: The question was about Iran, what's going on
-- what's happening on the nuclear front and what's happening on reports of Iran -- perhaps, let me put it this way, weapons coming across the border from Iran into Iraq and are they related.
I don't see any relationship between the two. I think where we are on the nuclear issue in terms of Iran is this: They have -- they have indicated and taken steps to begin the conversion. They have not done anything on reprocessing or enrichment; they have done something on conversion. They have asked the IAEA to remove the seals and they have removed the seals. It is still being done under IAEA observation. But the EU 3 have taken the position, and we agree with it, that that activity is inconsistent with the Paris Accord and is one of the things that the Iranians agreed to freeze or suspend as part of that Paris Accord. And so they are in violation of that Paris Accord, and that is what the EU 3 has said.
The Board of Governors adopted a resolution calling on the Iranians to come back into compliance with the Paris Accord, to suspend any further conversion activity. They've called it a matter of great seriousness. They've asked the Director General to make a report on the 3rd of September. And there is an opportunity for Iran to do what the EU 3 and we, and I think most of the Board of Governors hope they will do, which is come back into compliance, stop the conversion activity, and then to resume discussions and negotiations with the EU 3 about a more permanent arrangement.
And it's interesting that while they have resumed this conversion activity, they have still done it under IAEA supervision. And we had the President of Iran indicating that they would have some ideas and that there would be further negotiations. We think that is the right step, to have -- for Iran to come back into compliance with the Paris Accord, and to resume the negotiations and discussions with the EU 3. We've made that clear publicly. We, of course, have our ambassador at the IAEA. He has said that in the IAEA discussions. So we have, I think, good communication with the Iranians on that issue.
In terms of the border issue with Iraq, obviously, we and the Iraqis monitor closely the activities of Iranian representatives in Iraq. We try and ensure that from both of the borders -- the border that Iraq has with Syria and the border it has with Iran -- that there are not flows of fighters or armament or anything else that will make the situation in Iraq more difficult. Iraqis have called on both Syria and Iran to support the democratic process and to support their efforts to defeat the terrorists in Iraq by ensuring that there isn't any of this activity going across their borders.
We've been very concerned about Syria as a staging area for foreign fighters coming into Iraq. We have raised this issue repeatedly with the Syrians. We have been monitoring, and the Iraqis have been monitoring, the Iranian border, and the concern is that there are -- there may be IEDs and other munitions showing up that seem to have a footprint similar to that of devices used by groups that have historically had Iranian support. That's the concern we have.
And whether the Iranian government is directly involved, we don't know. But it's a concern we've had. We've raised it publicly. Other allies in the coalition have raised it publicly, and the Iraqis are now aware of it, and they've indicated that they will look into, as well.
But we're all in agreement that Iran and Syria need to control their borders and make sure that there is nothing going across those borders that will compound the security situation in Iraq and lead to not only coalition forces and Americans being at risk and killed, but also, of course, Iraqis, because scores of Iraqis are dying. They are the principal victims of this terrorism.
Q -- IEDs, improvised explosive devices, but Rumsfeld talked about very powerful, sophisticated, professionally manufactured devices. And you say groups that have had support from Iran -- are you suggesting a distinction between Iran and the government itself? Is it a suspicion that these are coming from terrorist organizations that are somehow linked?
MR. HADLEY: We don't know. We're looking into it. And under the heading of IEDs, there's a wide range of them, from very simple devices to more sophisticated. And of course, the ones you're more concerned about are the more sophisticated devices because they tend to be more effective and more lethal.
END 4:36 P.M. CDT
OPEN SOURCE HUMINT ANALYSIS [OSHA]-Iran: 2005 AUGUST 11
Although technically correct, spokespersons for ANALYSIS-Iran nuclear restart reflects deep confidence: Reuters, NBC News Interview: SPC, 2005-08-11 The President of Strategic Policy Consulting, Alireza Jafarzadeh said nuclear negotiations: Channel 4, 2005-08-11 Earlier, the United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan urged EU members to show restraint in talks over Rumsfeld takes a shot at "What we're trying to do, frankly, is to give Donald Rumsfeld, the Protest over Clashes in Shiite shrine unnerves
ANALYSIS-Iran nuclear restart reflects deep confidence: Reuters,
NBC News Interview: SPC, 2005-08-11
The President of Strategic Policy Consulting, Alireza Jafarzadeh said
nuclear negotiations: Channel 4, 2005-08-11
Earlier, the United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan urged EU members to show restraint in talks over
Rumsfeld takes a shot at
"What we're trying to do, frankly, is to give
Donald Rumsfeld, the
Clashes in Shiite shrine unnerves