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8/18/2005


 

OPEN SOURCE HUMINT ANALYSIS [OSHA]-Iran: 2005 AUGUST 14


President Bush's recent remarks stating that the United States had not removed the military option from the table was not a U.S.-Iran policy shift toward greater U.S. aggression.  Rather, the president’s comment reflects a long standing U.S. policy toward Iran, the world’s worst state sponsor of terrorism.  Maintaining the military option "on the table" as a last resort appears to have considerable backing in the U.S. congress.  However the EU3, whose negotiations with Iran the U.S. fully supports, couldn't be more divided on the subject of force under any circumstances.  Iran has already announced its intention to not comply with an IAEA resolution passed 10, August 2005.
 

To that end German Chancellor Gerhard Schoder has made resistance to a military solution for Iran’s non-compliance a domestic campaign issue.  This should not be a surprise when one realizes Germany’s ailing economy has seen some relief recently in the form of increased trade with Iran (33.4% increase in exports 2004).  French and UK officials have remained relatively quiet on the issue of Iran’s non-compliance with the IAEA’s most recent resolution.  They have however made remarks suggesting that they harbor a steadfast unwillingness to allow Iran to develop a nuclear bomb.  Tough talk from the Brits and the French from their political perspective sidesteps the greater issue of Iran developing the capacity to rapidly manufacture nuclear warheads if its foreign policy were to shift in the direction of overt ambition to join the nuclear armed community. 

 

Nations with warheads in Iran's neighborhood include Pakistan and Israel.  The political ascension of the ultra violent, Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) is a strong indicator that Tehran may in fact shift what they describe as a peaceful nuclear program to one that not only produces electric power but also thermo-nuclear detonations.  The resumes of Iranian President Mahmood Amadinejad’s presidential appointees indicate a continuation of the trend toward IRGC dominance.  A trend that was not surprising initiated by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenie, a former Revolutionary Guard Commander himself.  The record confidence level demonstrated by Iranian nuclear negotiators, spurred on by Tehran’s ruling elite appears to be pegged to the price of a barrel of light crude.

 

Hitting record highs of $67 a barrel a massive wealth transfer to oil producing states is underway.  Unfortunately, the recent increase in clashes between a restive Iranian populace and state security forces indicates that the surplus revenues the country are experiencing are not being spent on education and social services domestically.  Instead, greater Iranian aggression in neighboring Iraq indicates officials in Tehran are preparing for a major conflict with the West.  The future of Iraq, where currently more than 100,000 U.S. soldiers and other coalition forces are feverishly working to maintain security while improving social services for Iraqis, will dramatically impact Iran’s future.  Although the majority Shiaa community in Iraq has made positive moves by stalling a plan to create an Iraqi Shiaa Federation, the eventual formation of such a federation will play well into Iran’s regional strategy.


IAEA NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS 
 

Schroder Starts Campaign With Attack:  AP via Moscow Times, 15 August 2005

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder: "But take the military options off of the table; we have seen that they're not suitable," Schroder said, in apparent reference to U.S. President George W. Bush's statement on Friday that "all options are on the table."

 

Iran, Germany’s largest market in Middle East:  Iran Mania, 10 August 2005

"Germany is traditionally the most important supplier of goods and services to Iran, and its exports to the country grew by 33.4 % in 2004, a 3.6-bln-euro business," Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) quoted an official in Germany’s Ministry of Economy and Labor.

 

Tehran Warns US Against Military Action Over Nuclear Program:  VOA 14 August 2005

U.S. Senator John McCain: "I guess my point is, for us to say that the Iranians can do whatever they want to do, and we won't, under any circumstances, exercise a military option, would be for them to have a license to do whatever they want to do," he said. "So, I think the president's comments that we wouldn't take the [military] option off the table was entirely appropriate."

 

Iran vows to defy Sept. 3 nuke deadline:  CBS News, Last Updated Sun, 14 Aug 2005 11:42:44 EDT

Hamid Reza Asefi: "Europe's behaviour will heavily influence the decision," [Iran’s Foreign Ministry] spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said told reporters.  "Work in Isfahan will not be suspended again for confidence building," Asefi said, referring to a past attempt to shore up negotiations.

Nuclear trace tests may back Iran's case:  The Age, August 15, 2005 - 6:24AM

Mohamed ElBaradei:  "All declared (nuclear) material in Iran is under verification, but we still are not in a position to say that there is no undeclared nuclear material or activities in Iran," IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei told reporters after an emergency meeting of the IAEA's governing board last week.  "With regard to the country as a whole, the jury is still out," he added.

 


POLITICAL ASCENTION OF IRAN’s REVOLUTIONARY GUARD (IRGC)

Hardliners take key offices, Only one of Khatami's reformists to stay on: Bangkok Post, Monday 15 August 2005

Ali Reza Rajaei & Saeed Madani: ``All those who worked against Khatami's reformist agenda have now been nominated to sit in the government,'' the reformist writer Ali Reza Rajaei said. ``Most of them are either former military commanders or people in close touch with security agencies.''  Political scientist Saeed Madani agreed, saying that the appointment of people associated with security forces to executive positions would retard Iran's progress.  ``The list means Iran will behave more secretly in its dealings, both with the nation and the international community,'' he said, adding it would also put greater emphasis on security.

 

Hard-liners dominate new Iran cabinet:  Iran Focus,  Sat. 13 Aug 2005

Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Manouchehr Mottaki

Chairman of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee, former Deputy Foreign Minister and ambassador to Turkey and Japan, former liaison officer between the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Foreign Ministry.

Ministry of Defence: Ali-Akbar Ahmadian

Rear Admiral (Revolutionary Guards), chief of staff of IRGC, former deputy commander of naval forces

Ministry of Intelligence and Security: Hojjatol-Islam Gholamreza Mohseni Ezhei

Prosecutor and Judge of Special Tribunal for Clergy, formerly Special Prosecutor in the Ministry of Intelligence and Security

Ministry of Interior: Hojjatol-Islam Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi

Former Deputy Minister of Intelligence and Security

Ministry of Islamic Culture and Guidance: Hossein Saffar Harandi

Former deputy editor in chief of ultra-conservative daily Kayhan, former commander in IRGC

Ministry of Oil: Ali Saeedlou

Long-time ally of Ahmadinejad in ultra-conservative Abadgaran faction, former deputy mayor of Tehran for finance and administration, replaced Ahmadinejad as interim mayor of Tehran after presidential elections

Ministry of Energy: Morteza Saghaian-Nejad

Mayor of Isfahan, chairman of hard-line Islamic Association of Engineers in Isfahan Province

Ministry of Economy: Farhad Rahbar

Economics lecturer in Tehran University

Ministry of Commerce: Ahmad Khaledi

Former Deputy Minister of Commerce

Ministry of Education: Hamid-Reza Haji-Babai

Member of presiding committee of Majlis, member of hard-line faction’s leadership in parliament

Ministry of Justice: Alireza Jamshidi

Deputy Chief of Judiciary for legal affairs

Ministry of Communications: Mohammad Soleymani

Former Deputy Minister of Science, former chancellor of University of Science and Technology of Tehran (where Ahmadinejad studied, taught, and founded the Islamic Association)
Ministry of Roads and Transportation: Ali Abadi

Deputy mayor of Tehran for development (from Ahmadinejad’s Abadgaran faction)

Ministry of Welfare: Sajjadi

Head of Presidential Office for Technology

Ministry of Science and Research: Mohammad-Mehdi Zahedi

Hard-line chairman of Kerman City Council

Ministry of Agriculture: Mohammad Reza Eskandari

Head of Wheat Self-sufficiency Programme

Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs: Habibollah Dahmardeh

Chancellor of University of Sistan and Baluchistan (may be replaced with Mohammad Jahromi, senior election officer in the Guardian Council)

Ministry of Health: Kamran Lankarani

Currently head of a hospital in the southern city of Shiraz, known for his hard-line Islamist views

Revolutionary Guards and allies sweep Iran’s new cabinet: Iran Focus, Sun. 14 Aug 2005

"There is not one minister in this cabinet who could be described as a moderate", said Ali Tavassoli, an Iranian affairs analyst based in Dubai. "There are a few hard-liners and many more very radical hard-liners. Ahmadinejad must feel quite at home among this crowd".

 

USADI Calls for Immediate Referral of Iran’s Nuclear Case to Security Council:  USADI, 09 Aug 2005

USADI:  Iran's theocratic system, with the ultra-conservative faction and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) now in full control, is incapable of meeting the political, social and economic demands of the Iranians and its international obligations. It, therefore, seeks to ensure its permanence by cracking down at home, sponsoring terrorism abroad, and developing weapons of mass destruction. The IRGC-engineered presidency of former Guards’ commander Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is primarily aimed to counter these existential challenges with even more brutality at home and intransigence abroad.

 

IRAN-IRAQ RELATIONS

Playing with fire:  Washington Times,  August 12, 2005

Raymond Tanter:  "There is evidence from independent sources that Iran is fueling the insurgency," said Raymond Tanter, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, co-chair of the Iran Policy Committee, who served on the staff of the National Security Council from 1981-82. "The Middle East Media Research Institute reported in January that a former commander of an insurgent group, Army of Muhammad, said, 'The truth is that Iran has played a significant role in supporting the Army of Muhammad and many factions of the resistance.'"

 

Iran backing Iraqi insurgent bombers - Time report:  Reuters, 14 Aug 2005 16:27:34 GMT

The U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad replied to a question on Sunday by George Stephanopoulos of ABC News about Iranian influence by saying: "Well, I am concerned. I do not oppose good relations between Iraq and Iran. They are neighbors.  "But at the same time, there are Iranian activities that undermine the current system. There are weapons that come across the Iranian border. There are people that come across from the Iranian border into Iraq."

 

Shiaas have Opposed Al Hakim's Call for Establishing a Shiite Federal Region - Sunnis felt "Shock and Fear":  AlMendhar, 14/08/2005 07:17:40

Jamal Eddin:   In an interview with Al Sharq Al Awsat on the phone from his office in Baghdad said, "At present, we need to establish the state institutions. I believe that if we are to speak on a system, it is appropriate to speak about the non-centralization system in administering the provinces, so as to assist the government." He added, "The first task that we should be interested in, is the establishment of the state institutions and providing services for the people, who have not asked or demanded for the federation. They are calling for the provision of services; electricity, water and security."

 

Shiaas have Opposed Al Hakim's Call for Establishing a Shiite Federal Region - Sunnis felt "Shock and Fear":  AlMendhar, 14/08/2005 07:17:40

Saleem Abdullah, leader in the Iraqi Islamic party and member in the constitution drafting committee, said, "This call confirms the reality of the worries of Arab Sunnis with regard to the existence of a division operation of the country into several regions, which are granted wide-scale competence." He continued, "Resorting to the gradual division of the country from provinces into regions is not based on a detailed studies and this is a rejected matter on our behalf."


DOMESTIC UNREST 
 

US, UK get blame for Iran unrest:  Aljazeera.net, Sunday 14 August 2005, 21:49 Makka Time, 18:49 GMT

Vahed Qaribian, Kurdish activist: "Peace has returned to the area, but security is tight. Dozens of activists are still in jail," he said.  Those jailed include Ajlal Ghavami, Saeed Jalali and Roya Toloui, a women's rights activist. Human Rights Watch (HRW) said the security forces wounded hundreds when they opened fire in Mahabad on demonstrators who were protesting against the police killing of a Kurdish activist, Shivan Qaderi, on 9 July.

 

5,000 in southern Kurdistan protested against the regime in Iran:  KurdishInfo, 14 August 2005

"Every Kurd in every part of Kurdistan has the same pain. The Kurds need their unity more than ever. We must all stand united against the attacks on the Kurdish people. The Kurds must support each other", Dr. Gulpi continued. Demonstrators also chanted slogans in favour of the Kurdish uprising in eastern Kurdistan and for the imprisoned Kurdish national leader Abdullah Ocalan. Slogans as "Our sun [Ocalan] is never alone!", "North, south, east, Ocalan leader of the nation!", "Again, Again, Uprising, Our leader is Ocalan", "We are with the eastern Kurds!" and "The eastern Kurds are never alone!" were shouted by the demonstrators.


IRAN - PETROLEUM MARKET 
 

Oil Prices Hit Record Near $67:  AP via PetroleumIran,  12 AUGUST 2005

Mike Fitzpatrick: "This is a bubble that will have to burst at some point," said Mike Fitzpatrick, an oil broker at Fimat USA in New York. A large increase in supply or a noticeable dropoff in demand will be needed to end the buying frenzy, he said.


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ROUND-UP: IRAN'S NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES

Following are experts who can comment on Iran's nuclear capabilities, in light of the country's announcement that it has resumed nuclear work at its uranium- conversion facility:


**1. IVAN ELAND, senior fellow at THE INDEPENDENT INSTITUTE: "If economic sanctions are placed on Iran, they should be narrowly focused on nuclear technology and materials. The number of supplies of these items is restricted, and so there is a better chance of keeping prohibited items out of Iran's grasp. Yet there probably will still be some evasion. Broad sanctions, as were imposed unsuccessfully in Iraq, merely hurt the population for a limited time and allowed the regime to redirect the hurt from the regime to the poorest people. They also allow the regime to blame the foreign meddlers (the West) for its economic problems. Narrowly focused sanctions may slow down Iran obtaining the bomb, but will probably not stop it. Like radical Maoist China, the world may eventually have to deal with a nuclear Iran."

**2. THOMAS ALAN SCHWARTZ, professor of history at VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY: "As leaders of Western Europe and President Bush have made clear, Iran's determination to acquire nuclear weapons poses a global security threat. If Iran continues to refuse the generous package of incentives that the Europeans have offered, the issue should be taken to the UN Security Council for consideration of sanctions. This procedure would make clear that it is not just the U.S. that no longer trusts Iran’s assurances. The U.S. should put a priority on remaining united with the Western Europeans on this issue, but it will certainly challenge U.S.-European unity -- witness Chancellor Schroeder's refusal to even consider military force."

**3. SCOTT JONES, senior research associate at the UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA’s Center for International Trade and Security: "Iran’s ability to complete the nuclear fuel cycle, while lawful under NPT provisions, is synonymous with its ability to develop nuclear weapons. The 'European' approach to the Iranian nuclear crisis, characterized by engagement and incentives, has intersected that of the American position -- sanctions and absolute transparency -– now that Iran has declared its unwillingness to abandon enrichment. Iran’s decision to re-start the Isfahan facility has consolidated the EU and the U.S. final position, leaving almost no option but sanctions." Jones has published extensively in the area of security and nonproliferation.

**4. MITCHELL REISS, vice-provost for international relations at the COLLEGE OF WILLIAM & MARY, is an expert on nuclear non-proliferation: "At every step of the two-year negotiating process, the EU-3 has merely reacted as Tehran has set the pace and terms of engagement. Rather than 'defining danger down' by ignoring Iran's latest move to become a nuclear weapons state, what is required now is for the EU-3 to take the initiative and bring this issue directly to the UN Security Council -- a step it can take without the approval of the IAEA Board." Reiss was also director of policy and planning at the State Department under Secretary Colin Powell.

**5. CHARLES PENA, director of defense policy studies at CATO INSTITUTE: "Economic sanctions -- like economic incentives -- are unlikely to have much effect on Iran's nuclear ambitions because economics is not the motivating factor for the Iranians. Ultimately, what Tehran wants is a security guarantee to stave off possible preemptive regime change by the United States, which is something the Europeans cannot give the Iranians and that the Bush administration will apparently not give. Sanctions will likely be interpreted as a prelude to possible U.S. military action and may provide further incentive for the Iranians to accelerate their nuclear efforts to deter U.S. preemptive regime change."

**6. ILAN BERMAN, vice president of the AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY COUNCIL and author of "Tehran Rising: Iran's Challenge to the United States," is an expert on regional security in the Middle East, Central Asia and the Russian Federation: "Iran has emerged as a major player in the Middle East and a growing challenge to the United States. In the Persian Gulf, Central Asia and the Caucasus, Iranian policymakers are busy cobbling together alliances intended to marginalize the U.S. and its European allies. In Iraq, Iran is spending millions to bolster an insurgency that may transform the former Ba’athist state into another Islamic Republic. Through its nuclear advances, Iran is gaining the capability to catastrophically alter the balance of power throughout the region. All of this is by design: to make the Iranian regime the center of gravity in the post-Hussein Middle East."

**7. MAHMOOD MONSHIPOURI, Ph.D., professor of political science in the College of Liberal Arts at QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY, is available to discuss the Middle East, terrorism and human rights. Monshipouri received his Ph.D. from the University of Georgia, an M.A. from Allamah Tabataba'i University's College of Political and Social Sciences, Tehran, Iran, and a B.A. from Teachers' Training University at Pars College in Tehran. Monshipouri is a visiting fellow at the Yale Center for International and Area Studies. He is the author of "Islamism, Secularism and Human Rights in the Middle East" and co-editor of a volume entitled, "Constructing Human Rights in the Age of Globalization."

**8. ANDREW KARAM, research assistant professor of biological science at the ROCHESTER INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, can field questions on the scientific aspects of uranium enrichment. Karam has been following uranium enrichment for some time, and has some direct experience with uranium enrichment in the U.S. He also visited Iran for a scientific conference in 2000 and was interviewed on Iranian TV.


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8/12/2005


 

Press Briefing by National Security Advisor Steve Hadley, August 11, 2005 -- Excerpt

*************
Q Steve, what was the thinking on Iran? We've heard some disturbing information from Secretary Rumsfeld this week about very sophisticated, powerful bombs being smuggled from Iran into Iraq. We've seen Iran now restart uranium enrichment. We've seen Iran say that the Paris Accord is now defunct. The IAEA has passed a resolution condemning the activities and calling for more talks. What kind of communications, either directly or through channels, has the U.S. government had with Iran about its activities and along the border with Iraq? And is there any kind of a connection that might be drawn between the posture the Iranian government takes in both areas?

MR. HADLEY: The question was about Iran, what's going on

-- what's happening on the nuclear front and what's happening on reports of Iran -- perhaps, let me put it this way, weapons coming across the border from Iran into Iraq and are they related.

I don't see any relationship between the two. I think where we are on the nuclear issue in terms of Iran is this: They have -- they have indicated and taken steps to begin the conversion. They have not done anything on reprocessing or enrichment; they have done something on conversion. They have asked the IAEA to remove the seals and they have removed the seals. It is still being done under IAEA observation. But the EU 3 have taken the position, and we agree with it, that that activity is inconsistent with the Paris Accord and is one of the things that the Iranians agreed to freeze or suspend as part of that Paris Accord. And so they are in violation of that Paris Accord, and that is what the EU 3 has said.

The Board of Governors adopted a resolution calling on the Iranians to come back into compliance with the Paris Accord, to suspend any further conversion activity. They've called it a matter of great seriousness. They've asked the Director General to make a report on the 3rd of September. And there is an opportunity for Iran to do what the EU 3 and we, and I think most of the Board of Governors hope they will do, which is come back into compliance, stop the conversion activity, and then to resume discussions and negotiations with the EU 3 about a more permanent arrangement.

And it's interesting that while they have resumed this conversion activity, they have still done it under IAEA supervision. And we had the President of Iran indicating that they would have some ideas and that there would be further negotiations. We think that is the right step, to have -- for Iran to come back into compliance with the Paris Accord, and to resume the negotiations and discussions with the EU 3. We've made that clear publicly. We, of course, have our ambassador at the IAEA. He has said that in the IAEA discussions. So we have, I think, good communication with the Iranians on that issue.

In terms of the border issue with Iraq, obviously, we and the Iraqis monitor closely the activities of Iranian representatives in Iraq. We try and ensure that from both of the borders -- the border that Iraq has with Syria and the border it has with Iran -- that there are not flows of fighters or armament or anything else that will make the situation in Iraq more difficult. Iraqis have called on both Syria and Iran to support the democratic process and to support their efforts to defeat the terrorists in Iraq by ensuring that there isn't any of this activity going across their borders.

We've been very concerned about Syria as a staging area for foreign fighters coming into Iraq. We have raised this issue repeatedly with the Syrians. We have been monitoring, and the Iraqis have been monitoring, the Iranian border, and the concern is that there are -- there may be IEDs and other munitions showing up that seem to have a footprint similar to that of devices used by groups that have historically had Iranian support. That's the concern we have.

And whether the Iranian government is directly involved, we don't know. But it's a concern we've had. We've raised it publicly. Other allies in the coalition have raised it publicly, and the Iraqis are now aware of it, and they've indicated that they will look into, as well.

But we're all in agreement that Iran and Syria need to control their borders and make sure that there is nothing going across those borders that will compound the security situation in Iraq and lead to not only coalition forces and Americans being at risk and killed, but also, of course, Iraqis, because scores of Iraqis are dying. They are the principal victims of this terrorism.

Q -- IEDs, improvised explosive devices, but Rumsfeld talked about very powerful, sophisticated, professionally manufactured devices. And you say groups that have had support from Iran -- are you suggesting a distinction between Iran and the government itself? Is it a suspicion that these are coming from terrorist organizations that are somehow linked?

MR. HADLEY: We don't know. We're looking into it. And under the heading of IEDs, there's a wide range of them, from very simple devices to more sophisticated. And of course, the ones you're more concerned about are the more sophisticated devices because they tend to be more effective and more lethal.

END 4:36 P.M. CDT

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8/11/2005


 

OPEN SOURCE HUMINT ANALYSIS [OSHA]-Iran: 2005 AUGUST 11



Although technically correct, spokespersons for Iran deny they are in breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by removing International Atomic Energy Agency seals intended to prevent the country from enriching uranium while nuclear negotiations are under way. Uranium enrichment is not an NPT violation however; Iran maintained a clandestine nuclear program for 25 years that did breach the treaty. It is those violations that have prompted the IAEA to demand a full cessation of uranium enrichment activities and implore Iran to accept nuclear fuel from a third party and return spent fuel to the same or another third party. Iranian officials flatly deny facilitating violence in Iraq while U.S. and coalition partners have solid evidence to the contrary. The highest officials in Iran, including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenie vocally support the insurgent effort in Iraq and are stead fast against Iraqi democratization. The West has every reason to believe arms as well as other support for Iraqi insurgents are coming from Iran. A restive Iranian populace is demonstrating dissent domestically on a scale not witnessed since the student uprising [film] of 18tir, July of 1999. The confluence of domestic unrest, support for the insurgency in Iraq and unabashed nuclear brinkmanship are all indicators that Tehran, as a source of regional instability will continue to exacerbate the volatility of the situation there.


EU3 NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS

ANALYSIS-Iran nuclear restart reflects deep confidence: Reuters, 11 August 2005"We have not broken any rules ... They cannot say that we violated the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty," Gholamreza Aghazadeh, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, said this week.

NBC News Interview: SPC, 2005-08-11

The President of Strategic Policy Consulting, Alireza Jafarzadeh said “Iran is not interested in any kind of economic benefits or even political benefits; they are interested in getting the bomb at any cost.”Iran

nuclear negotiations: Channel 4, 2005-08-11

Earlier, the United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan urged EU members to show restraint in talks over Iran's nuclear plans. Mr Annan said: "I think it is essential that we break this current impasse, and I believe that the best way to break the impasse is to continue the discussions. "I have indications from both sides that they are prepared to continue the search for a solution. I hope that all sides will desist from any action that will lead to further escalation and continue the process at the (negotiating) table."


IRAQ RELATIONS

Rumsfeld takes a shot at Iran: Asia Times, Aug 11 2005

The recent evidence of these arms transfers prompted US ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad to complain publicly last week that Iran was taking actions that undermine Iraqi security. "Iran is working along two contradictory tracks," he said. "On the one hand, Tehran works with the new Iraq. On the other, there is movement across its borders of people and material used in violent acts against Iraq."

U.S. Leaves Tough Talk on Iran to Others: Washington Post, 2005-08-11

"What we're trying to do, frankly, is to give Iran a chance to do the right thing," State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said Wednesday. Iran should immediately suspend its resumed nuclear activities, and return to discussions with the Europeans, Ereli said.

Britain and US warn Iran over links with Iraq rebels: Telegraph 2005-08-11

Donald Rumsfeld, the US defense secretary, also accused Iran of smuggling weaponry. He said: "It's notably unhelpful for the Iranians to be allowing weapons of those types to be crossing the border." This created problems for the Iraqi government, coalition forces and the international community. "And ultimately, it's a problem for Iran," he said. Asked if that amounted to an implied threat, Mr Rumsfeld said: "I don't imply threats. You know that."


DOMESTIC UNREST

Protest over Iran journalist on hunger strike: Reuters, Aug 11, 2005

"After 63 days of hunger strike, Ganji has lost 30 kg (66 lbs)," said Hessam Firouzi, a doctor among Ganji's supporters who was permitted to study his medical chart. "Since two days ago he has been in an intensive care unit."

Clashes in Shiite shrine unnerves Iran’s holy city: Iran Focus, Thu. 11 Aug 2005

“Khamenei has always been afraid of the senior ayatollahs in Qom, who dwarf him in terms of religious qualifications”, Ali Tavassoli, an Iranian financial analyst based in Dubai, said in a telephone interview. “But taking such drastic measures against women followers of a deceased ayatollah can only show how vulnerable he must be feeling right now. He just doesn’t want to take any chances”.



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TRANSLATION

POSTS

  • OPEN SOURCE HUMINT ANALYSIS [OSHA]-Iran: 2005 AUGUST 14
  • ROUND-UP: IRAN'S NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES
  • Press Briefing by National Security Advisor Steve Hadley, August 11, 2005 -- Excerpt
  • OPEN SOURCE HUMINT ANALYSIS [OSHA]-Iran: 2005 AUGUST 11
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