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8/11/2005


 

OPEN SOURCE HUMINT ANALYSIS [OSHA]-Iran: 2005 AUGUST 11



Although technically correct, spokespersons for Iran deny they are in breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by removing International Atomic Energy Agency seals intended to prevent the country from enriching uranium while nuclear negotiations are under way. Uranium enrichment is not an NPT violation however; Iran maintained a clandestine nuclear program for 25 years that did breach the treaty. It is those violations that have prompted the IAEA to demand a full cessation of uranium enrichment activities and implore Iran to accept nuclear fuel from a third party and return spent fuel to the same or another third party. Iranian officials flatly deny facilitating violence in Iraq while U.S. and coalition partners have solid evidence to the contrary. The highest officials in Iran, including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenie vocally support the insurgent effort in Iraq and are stead fast against Iraqi democratization. The West has every reason to believe arms as well as other support for Iraqi insurgents are coming from Iran. A restive Iranian populace is demonstrating dissent domestically on a scale not witnessed since the student uprising [film] of 18tir, July of 1999. The confluence of domestic unrest, support for the insurgency in Iraq and unabashed nuclear brinkmanship are all indicators that Tehran, as a source of regional instability will continue to exacerbate the volatility of the situation there.


EU3 NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS

ANALYSIS-Iran nuclear restart reflects deep confidence: Reuters, 11 August 2005"We have not broken any rules ... They cannot say that we violated the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty," Gholamreza Aghazadeh, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, said this week.

NBC News Interview: SPC, 2005-08-11

The President of Strategic Policy Consulting, Alireza Jafarzadeh said “Iran is not interested in any kind of economic benefits or even political benefits; they are interested in getting the bomb at any cost.”Iran

nuclear negotiations: Channel 4, 2005-08-11

Earlier, the United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan urged EU members to show restraint in talks over Iran's nuclear plans. Mr Annan said: "I think it is essential that we break this current impasse, and I believe that the best way to break the impasse is to continue the discussions. "I have indications from both sides that they are prepared to continue the search for a solution. I hope that all sides will desist from any action that will lead to further escalation and continue the process at the (negotiating) table."


IRAQ RELATIONS

Rumsfeld takes a shot at Iran: Asia Times, Aug 11 2005

The recent evidence of these arms transfers prompted US ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad to complain publicly last week that Iran was taking actions that undermine Iraqi security. "Iran is working along two contradictory tracks," he said. "On the one hand, Tehran works with the new Iraq. On the other, there is movement across its borders of people and material used in violent acts against Iraq."

U.S. Leaves Tough Talk on Iran to Others: Washington Post, 2005-08-11

"What we're trying to do, frankly, is to give Iran a chance to do the right thing," State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said Wednesday. Iran should immediately suspend its resumed nuclear activities, and return to discussions with the Europeans, Ereli said.

Britain and US warn Iran over links with Iraq rebels: Telegraph 2005-08-11

Donald Rumsfeld, the US defense secretary, also accused Iran of smuggling weaponry. He said: "It's notably unhelpful for the Iranians to be allowing weapons of those types to be crossing the border." This created problems for the Iraqi government, coalition forces and the international community. "And ultimately, it's a problem for Iran," he said. Asked if that amounted to an implied threat, Mr Rumsfeld said: "I don't imply threats. You know that."


DOMESTIC UNREST

Protest over Iran journalist on hunger strike: Reuters, Aug 11, 2005

"After 63 days of hunger strike, Ganji has lost 30 kg (66 lbs)," said Hessam Firouzi, a doctor among Ganji's supporters who was permitted to study his medical chart. "Since two days ago he has been in an intensive care unit."

Clashes in Shiite shrine unnerves Iran’s holy city: Iran Focus, Thu. 11 Aug 2005

“Khamenei has always been afraid of the senior ayatollahs in Qom, who dwarf him in terms of religious qualifications”, Ali Tavassoli, an Iranian financial analyst based in Dubai, said in a telephone interview. “But taking such drastic measures against women followers of a deceased ayatollah can only show how vulnerable he must be feeling right now. He just doesn’t want to take any chances”.



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