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7/14/2006


 

Free Republic Commentary 7/15-7/30

Recalling history's lessons [Bring Iran Justice Now!]
Posted by humint
On News/Activism 07/30/2006 11:17:00 AM PDT · 5 replies · 192+ views


Washington Times ^ | 30 July 2006 | Struan Stevenson
Spanish-American political philosopher George Santayana famously said, "Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are destined to repeat them." Current events in Iran indicate we had better prepare ourselves for some sharp history lessons. As the brutal, fascist regime tightens its grip in the Middle East, the parallels with the rise of Nazi Germany are menacing. Under the tyrannical rule of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 120,000 opponents have been executed since the overthrow of the shah 27 years ago. Women -- even pregnant women -- are hanged from cranes in city squares or stoned to death....

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Suez's lesson (David Frum on Middle-East mistakes of 50 years ago)
Posted by humint to GMMAC
On News/Activism 07/29/2006 7:58:58 AM PDT · 17 of 28

BTW, thought provoking good post, bttt



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Suez's lesson (David Frum on Middle-East mistakes of 50 years ago)
Posted by humint to GMMAC
On News/Activism 07/29/2006 7:54:59 AM PDT · 14 of 28

Sometimes even mistakes can do the job. In 1986, a U.S. warship mistook an Iranian passenger jet for a fighter plane and shot it down. Khomeini refused to believe the shooting was an accident. He became convinced that the U.S. was actively intervening to support Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war -- and, for that reason, he at last agreed to accept peace.

Hmmmm?

The eight-year Iran-Iraq War was Iran's first major external conflict since the Russo-Iranian wars of the first decades of the nineteenth century. The Iranian mullahs' policy of exporting fundamentalism ("spreading the Islamic Revolution") to Iraq played a key role in the outbreak of hostilities. Indeed, the Khomeini regime's determination to export revolution to Iraq was a major cause of the eight-year war...

The objectives for which Khomeini fanned the flames of war were finally left unrealized. The regime was defeated, and Khomeini, in his own words, "drank the chalice of the poison of the cease-fire" in July 1988. The defeat, however, did not destroy the mullahs' dream of dominating Iraq and installing a client fundamentalist regime. After the cease-fire, the mullahs strengthened their clandestine network in Iraq and waited for an opportune moment to revive their efforts toward realizing the old objectives. That opportunity came at the end of the Persian Gulf War.


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Rebels kill five soldiers in Iran
Posted by humint to Richard Kimball
On News/Activism 07/28/2006 11:57:23 PM PDT · 19 of 22

Like Africa, much of the Middle East still operates on a tribal system. It all shakes down with reorganized borders and several new strong men, each swearing to wipe Israel from the face of the map.

Clearly they all need to upgrade their OS. According to some who study Iranian history you may have missed Khomeini's major premise. By some accounts he intended to emulate Israel's religious cohesion with Islam in order to organize for war against perceived threats to the source of his power, Islam. His was circular logic to be sure. Ultimately the best threat to maintain the logical ring would become Israel. However, almost by happenstance Iran cleansed itself of opposition by waging war on its neighbor, Iraq. The fact is Khomeini needed a war after the revolution to consolidate his power.

His authority was challenged almost immediately by the muscle behind the Iranian Revolution. Within two weeks of its occurrence, Khomeini’s leadership was questioned. Think about it. Before Iranian fascism, the best the region could produce was the widely respected and adored, Abdul Nassir.

What the ME needs, and the ground is ripe for, is an emulation of the social, political and diplomatic success of the greater Jewish community around the world. To support healthy social behavior among ME leadership would recognize the fact that Israel's military capability is only a symptom of sustained social liberty [and only necessary when the liberty of democratic citizens are threatened]. Khomeini was only fixated on emulating Israel's military successes when he hijacked Islam. In order to do so, Khomeini fomented fascist hate that permeates the region today.

Machiavelli suggested the power of a state could be measured by its subject’s willingness to die for the state. He was right for his time but wrong for ours. Under a democracy, the power of a state is established by its citizen’s willingness to live, fight and argue for liberty. IMO The only purpose of a state is to remain organized in order to protect liberty!


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Rebels kill five soldiers in Iran
Posted by humint to HardStarboard
On News/Activism 07/28/2006 10:57:22 PM PDT · 17 of 22

"So perhaps the Kurds had some encouraging words wispered in their ear..." --- Damn, wouldn't that be nice!! Its what we should have been doing for the past 5 years.

Are you kidding? The US hasn't been wispering... America has been shouting in their face from 2003.


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Rebels kill five soldiers in Iran
Posted by humint to Candor7
On News/Activism 07/28/2006 10:40:19 PM PDT · 14 of 22

"The mullahs will never give up their power." --- Just put rifles in their hands and send them to Iraq. Dead Men Walking.

Iran in Iraq: How Much Influence?: Muqtada al-Sadr's uprising in April 2004 heightened fears that Iran might be backing anti-coalition violence. Iran also has been accused of facilitating the movement of groups such as Ansar al-Islam, and of being responsible for the assassination of Iraqi security officials. More recently, the triumph in the January 2005 elections for Iraq's transitional national assembly of the Shiite-based United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) and, in particular, of three parties within it with long-standing ties to the Iranian regime -- the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), Al-Da'wa and Al-Da'wa - Tanzim al-Iraq -- appeared to vindicate the views of those who suspect an Iranian effort to install a loyal, theocratic government.


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Rebels kill five soldiers in Iran
Posted by humint to adamsjas
On News/Activism 07/28/2006 10:29:01 PM PDT · 11 of 22

This story concerns IRAN, not Iraq. You are confusing me....

Iran and Turkey are coordinating to attack PKK positions in Iraq. PKK leader injured in Iranian strike, report says


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Rebels kill five soldiers in Iran
Posted by humint to NY Attitude
On News/Activism 07/28/2006 10:02:02 PM PDT · 4 of 22

The mullahs will never give up their power. That is why I made the comment about boots. The power that the mullahs possess has to be wrested away from them. The use of force is probably the only way it will happen. There are too many religious zealots parading around as mullahs.

چی فکر میکنی؟


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Rebels kill five soldiers in Iran
Posted by humint
On News/Activism 07/28/2006 9:47:33 PM PDT · 21 replies · 492+ views


Iran Focus ^ | Fri. 28 Jul 2006 | Iran Focus
Baghdad, Jul. 28 – Members of the Kurdish rebel group PKK have killed five Iranian soldiers in the northwest of the country, Kurdistan Television reported on Thursday. The clashed took place near the town of Qal’eh Rash in Iranian Kurdistan Province. Three other soldiers were injured, according to the report. The PKK has announced that four of its members were also killed in the fighting. Kurdistan Television also said that 10 Turkish soldiers were killed and fifteen others injured in separate clashes in the Kurdish region of Wan in Turkey.

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The Iranian Mullahs' Aim (Must Read - author is an Iranian born Freeper)
Posted by humint to NY Attitude
On News/Activism 07/28/2006 2:31:48 PM PDT · 48 of 53

Okay, just whom do you propose?

My comment was less about who than how. In any case, RP's plan doesn't match your suggestion.


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The Iranian Mullahs' Aim (Must Read - author is an Iranian born Freeper)
Posted by humint to NY Attitude
On News/Activism 07/28/2006 1:41:02 PM PDT · 45 of 53

Time for Reza Pahlavi to return to Iran and put on his Grandfather's boots and clean house!

Consider this. Machiavelli believed all society followed a sinusoidal pattern oscillating between three types:

  1. Junta
  2. dictatorship, including monarchy
  3. democracy
When he was writing, his society and his neighboring societies were much like the Middle East is today. Of course, Europe is less of a warring nation these days and the weapons of war have become so devastating that we would be wise to consciously break from Machiavelli’s teachings. We have to graduate or perish. It is not in the interest of the Middle East or the United States that a, last century type, monarch go to Iran and "clean house".

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Islam and Israel
Posted by humint to qlangley
On Bloggers & Personal 07/28/2006 12:43:53 PM PDT · 2 of 16

And, worse, there are vectors for this virus. Right across the Middle East people have internet access. There are two competing pan-Arab news channels: Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya. They have different takes on the situation in Iraq, and now on the conflict in the Lebanon. Arabs have access to competing points of view, and can make up their own minds.

I’ve never considered freedom’s march analogous to the spread of a pathogen. Alternatively, I’ve never considered freedom a cure all either. Freedom only relieves an individual from blaming someone else for their failures. The free mind that learns responsibility through failing will one day succeed. That kind of success alone is the engine driving humankind to a better and brighter future.


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The Iranian Mullahs' Aim (Must Read - author is an Iranian born Freeper)
Posted by humint to The_Reader_David
On News/Activism 07/28/2006 12:11:38 PM PDT · 42 of 53

Clarity demands we see this as a religious war, but for now, we're just fighting two Mohammedan sects. We (in Iraq and Afghanistan) and NATO (in Afghanistan) and the Ethiopians (in Somalia) are taking the fight to the Salafists (with intermittent help from some Arab governments, notably Jordan). The Israelis are taking the fight to the Twelver "Hasteners" (in Lebanon). Let's not start a global conflagration yet.

Outstanding point! I’d only add a caution… ideas aren’t uniforms! How does one differentiate between friend and foe in a war of this sort? Surprisingly, it’s not that difficult to pick out an ideological enemy under the right circumstances. Culture plays a big role in it so we shouldn’t expect a farm boy from the heartland to do it. It’s easier to tell friends from enemies in our own culture than it is someone else’s. That’s a lesson in guerilla warfare the ancient colonial empires never learned and we’re learning the hard way. We’ve yet to engineer an effective strategy that fully leverages indigenous culture to identify our ideological enemies. One might say, "Well HUMINT, the Iraqis are standing up and they are policing their own now". I’d say we put as many friendly uniforms on our enemies as we did our friends. That made life all the tougher for our soldiers from the heartland. Unfortunately, the way we fought this war, there wasn’t much of an alternative. The problem is that nations always fight with lessons learned from the last war. Saddly, we're no different.


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Iranian Alert - July 24 - Average Iranians are angry with the regime's support for Hezbollah
Posted by humint to DoctorZIn
On News/Activism 07/28/2006 9:51:12 AM PDT · 13 of 16

AT: The mini war that is taking place between Israel and Hezbollah is, in fact, a proxy war in which Iran’s vision for the Middle East clashes with the administration in Washington. What is at stake is not the exchange of kidnapped Israeli soldiers with Arab prisoners in Israel. Such exchanges have happened routinely over five decades. The real issue is who will set the agenda for the Middle East: Iran or America?

Outstanding article by AT but I think he belittles the conflict when he implies this battle is between Washington and Tehran. Of course, I wouldn't up the ante on him if he hadn’t articulated so well the fact that framing this war as “simply between Israel and Hezbollah” is to belittle the conflict. Let's take ATs symbolism to the next level, toward its logical conclusion. Washington represents global interests; whereas Iran represents one man's failed attempt at a theocratic utopia. We've seen conflicts like this before... when a tyrant forces a surreal vision of utopia on society, society is quickly replaced by a very real hell on earth. History states unequivocally that containment and appeasement are steps away from a solution in situations like these.

This and similar enemies must be fought. Sanctions and support for democratic dissidents are steps toward a solution. War is also a solution. In this fight war is certainly an undesirable last recourse. War is hell, but it is a solution only because it represents a temporary hell.

Eternal damnation on earth is to be forced to live according to another’s failed vision of utopia. Iran today, under the mullahs’ reign, is hell on earth.


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ElBaradei: Have patience with Iran
Posted by humint
On News/Activism 07/27/2006 9:01:29 PM PDT · 12 replies · 258+ views


The Washington Times ^ | Jul. 27, 2006 at 3:03PM | UPI
He suggested that one hopeful sign is that Iran has not accelerated its nuclear efforts, which would be a signal it was developing nuclear weapons. "A few weeks won't make a difference," he said. "The issue is not Iran's nuclear program, but regional security."... "The bloodbath [in Lebanon] must be stopped quickly and a cease-fire must be brought about without delay," he told Der Spiegel. "But what's even more important is a comprehensive solution to the underlying problem. The Palestinian question is the elephant in the room. One cannot constantly treat only the symptoms."...

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As Bush stands firm in the Middle East, he capitulates Europe
Posted by humint to A. Pole
On News/Activism 07/26/2006 8:51:14 PM PDT · 34 of 114

Making world safe for Wahhabism

Fascinating article, thanks for the ping… When the sky is falling; some people get crushed by it on the way down, some people call the alarm, some people try to keep others calm, some people get cut when they pick up the pieces and some people laugh at the idiots who try to pick up the pieces.

I imagine an infinite chain of dominoes falling. We have just a few minutes to adjust the ones in front of us before they drop, knocking the next ones down. I didn’t start the chain of events and I know I can’t stop them, only make minor adjustments. Sometimes the adjustments have incalculable profits… most of the time they don’t.



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Venezuela, Belarus seal anti-imperialist alliance
Posted by humint to M. Espinola; DoctorZIn; FARS; odds; A. Pole; RightWhale; Marine_Uncle
On News/Activism 07/25/2006 10:00:17 PM PDT · 9 of 30

The type of relationship Assad and Chavez share with Tehran has some interesting similarities. Personally, I expected militancy from both but neither shows willingness to make a commitment to die for what they are doing. It’s early to make this assessment but Assad has demonstrated he’s significantly weaker than his opposition, the Muslim Brother Hood that subscribes to an ideology willing pay the ultimate price. The Israelis have exposed weakness among the West’s enemies on many levels beyond the ME. They showed that Chavez and Assad don’t actually believe in what they are doing! Both have been caught up in a series of successes based on countering globalization. IMO, this means neither need to die. What it means is they need to be deposed (potentially killed in the process) so the more powerful latent anti-West forces within their communities can be exposed. Once those are revealed, let the bullets fly.

Chavez and Assad are in the way. Figure out a way to bump them in order to take care of the real problems of the day. These are the lessons of Hamas and Hezbollah democratic successes. Thanks go to Israel for relaxing and allowing the world to learn them.


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Iran activist 'snubs White House'
Posted by humint to A. Pole
On News/Activism 07/25/2006 8:40:09 PM PDT · 19 of 21

Really? His prison internship in Iran will count for much more than his contacts with the former US administration. Former because in couple years someone else will be in White House. About bravery, he seems to have enough of his own.

To your first point, 6 years served for a political crimes in Iran is not particularly uncommon. Would an Iranian subjected to torture have more credibility in your view? Should we elevate anyone executed for standing up against the regime only because they were executed? You cannot dissociate aspects of a man’s life, assign points to them and say “this” will count more than “that”. To your second point, presidents come and go, that’s how democracy works and why it’s successful. If Ganjji missed this session because he believed popular sovereignty is too ephemeral as you do then he missed the point of his own writings. And finally, bravery is running toward a fire to put it out, not running from it… If American foreign policy is so counter productive to the democracy movement Ganjji is ready to lead, then he should step into it with both feet. The fact that he didn’t… IMO, 6 years in prison doesn’t make up for his cowardice on that day.


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Iran activist 'snubs White House'
Posted by humint to A. Pole
On News/Activism 07/25/2006 5:07:41 PM PDT · 17 of 21

Hmm, I think that he meant credibility among Iranian people. Looks like will be more credible in Iran than Chalabi ever was in Iraq.

I know he meant credibility among the Iranian people and so do I. When the fascists fall, if Ganji happens to be left standing, the Iranian people are going to be asking why he didn't work with the brave men and women of the United States of America. When, in heinsight of course, it is so obvious they changed their foreign policy to favor democrats in the ME. Ganji did the people of Iran a disservice by blowing a unique opportunity. In any case, the fact that Chalabi was a liar and a thief has no relevance here. It's a fool’s game to hold all dissidents to Chalabi’s low behavioral standard. Each individual and organization has a unique set of skills that can either facilitate popular sovereignty or destroy it. Americans have thrown their weight behind change and their credibility has been earned on the battlefield, in parliaments all over the world and in new classrooms that spread truth. The fact that Ganji doesn’t understand history in the making or his place in it today relegates him to a forgettable footnote, nothing more.


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Iran activist 'snubs White House'
Posted by humint to A. Pole
On News/Activism 07/25/2006 4:08:04 PM PDT · 14 of 21

Mr Ganji said he believed such meetings [of Iranian dissidents with State Department officials] would undermine the credibility of the Iranian opposition.

credibility: the quality of being believable or trustworthy

Ganji wasn't the only opponent of the Iranian regime to miss this meeting but let's focus on credibility for a moment. Growing up in a poor district of southern Tehran, Ganji was initially enthused by the 1979 Revolution. He became a member of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and worked at the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance. There's more history than this to shake Ganji's credibility. As the focus of reprisals from this regime, he is not automatically credible. Missing this opportunity to discuss the future with American officials actually reduces his credibility.

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps


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Can't Stop - Still unserious about Syria.
Posted by humint to colorado tanker
On News/Activism 07/25/2006 3:19:55 PM PDT · 10 of 11

CORRECTION

But so far, our leaders have had no Damascus moment illuminating them to that truth. So the current "disproportionate" response won't solve anything, long term.

With respect to Israel and Lebanon, It looks as if Israel has decided to fight the war the United States has been unable or unwilling to fight. The Bush administration has been saying the War on Terror is a global war for years but has not behaved as such. Pounding southern Lebanon Israel is focusing on the pond the Hezbollah fish swim in. with this level of commitment sectarian boundaries could hold the key to ending the violence and achieving a sustainable peace. I however doubt it’s as simple as it sounds. The militant Shiite crescent reaches to Israel’s northern border and in this context any legitimate military campaign would force a retreat through Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and finally achieve a decisive victory in Tehran.

If this is the new game plan, the U.S. has burnt incredible resources on Iraqi democracy. American efforts however have not gone up in flames yet. Saudi Arabia’s incredibly expensive construction projects are burning in Lebanon today. What a waste. We shouldn’t leave out Saudi Arabia’s positive role in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia’s generous contributions in the form of massive investment into Lebanon’s fledgling democracy at the behest of U.S. diplomats truly facilitated Lebanon’s democracy. This is why Saudi Arabia is so distraught with Hezbollah. To attack Syria would be an admission of the failure of a very expensive democracy project. Why would the United States want Israel to undo all this work unless forecasts have just taken a turn for the worst? I don’t think this recent chaos and in that Lebanon or a fresh attack on Syria plays to U.S. advantage at all. If we do that we’ve gone to plan B. The administration’s plan B has always been Ledeen’s plan A.

In today’s media environment Syria would have to make an unprecedented and unambiguous provocation before the West and the Middle East would accept Israeli air strikes on Syria. If they hit Syria without it they will lose the media momentum they have. There should be no doubt that the United States is transforming the Middle East and Israel’s role is large. I agree with Michael that this is a unique window of opportunity to force Syria’s hand but unless they or Iran attacks, Israel should just stick to killing their proxies. Ones Hezbollah is amputated Israel can move to the next limb at a pace set by Iran and Syria. Ultimately the regimes will collapse but they get to decide when. I think they both have been listening to Michael when he begs, faster please.


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Can't Stop - Still unserious about Syria.
Posted by humint to colorado tanker
On News/Activism 07/25/2006 3:17:34 PM PDT · 9 of 11

But so far, our leaders have had no Damascus moment illuminating them to that truth. So the current "disproportionate" response won't solve anything, long term.

With respect to Israel and Lebanon, It looks as if Israel has decided to fight the war the United States has been unable or unwilling to fight. The Bush administration has been saying the War on Terror is a global war for years but has not behaved as such. Pounding southern Lebanon Israel is focusing on the pond the Hezbollah fish swim in. with this level of commitment sectarian boundaries could hold the key to ending the violence and achieving a sustainable peace. I however doubt it’s as simple as it sounds. The militant Shiite crescent reaches to Israel’s northern border and in this context any legitimate military campaign would force a retreat through Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and finally achieve a decisive victory in Tehran.

If this is the new game plan, the U.S. has burnt incredible resources on Iraqi democracy. American efforts however have not gone up in flames yet. Saudi Arabia’s incredibly expensive construction projects are burning in Lebanon today. What a waste. We shouldn’t leave out Saudi Arabia’s positive role in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia’s generous contributions in the form of massive investment into Lebanon’s fledgling democracy at the behest of U.S. diplomats truly facilitated Lebanon’s democracy. This is why Saudi Arabia is so distraught with Hezbollah. To attack Syria would be an admission of the failure of a very expensive democracy project. Why would the United States want Israel to undo all this work unless forecasts have just taken a turn for the worst? I don’t think this recent chaos and in that Lebanon or a fresh attack on Syria plays to U.S. advantage at all. If we do that we’ve gone to plan B. The administration’s plan be has always been Ledeen’s plan A.

In today’s media environment Israel would have to make an unprecedented and unambiguous provocation before the West and the Middle East would accept Israeli air strikes on Syria. If they hit Syria without it they will lose the media momentum they have. There should be no doubt that the United States is transforming the Middle East and Israel’s role is large. I agree with Michael that this is a unique window of opportunity to force Syria’s hand but unless they or Iran attacks, Israel should just stick to killing their proxies. Ones Hezbollah is amputated Israel can move to the next limb at a pace set by Iran and Syria. Ultimately the regimes will collapse but they get to decide when. I think they both have been listening to Michael when he begs, faster please.


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Can't Stop - Still unserious about Syria.
Posted by humint to johnny7
On News/Activism 07/25/2006 2:24:17 PM PDT · 8 of 11

OFF THREAD TOPIC but Interesting

Intellectuals... tend to be socialists themselves. I couldn’t disagree more.

Intellectual: adj 1: of or relating to the intellect; "his intellectual career" 2: of or associated with or requiring the use of the mind; "intellectual problems"; "the triumph of the rational over the animal side of man" [syn: rational, noetic] 3: appealing to or using the intellect; "satire is an intellectual weapon"; "intellectual workers engaged in creative literary or artistic or scientific labor"; "has tremendous intellectual sympathy for oppressed people"; "coldly intellectual"; "sort of the intellectual type"; "intellectual literature" [ant: nonintellectual] 4: involving intelligence rather than emotions or instinct; "a cerebral approach to the problem"; "cerebral drama" [syn: cerebral] [ant: emotional] n : a person who uses the mind creatively [syn: intellect]

Socialism: refers to a broad array of doctrines or political movements that envisage a socio-economic system in which property and the distribution of wealth are subject to social control. [1] As an economic system, socialism is usually associated with state or collective ownership of the means of production. This control, according to socialists, may be either direct, exercised through popular collectives such as workers' councils, or it may be indirect, exercised on behalf of the people by the state.

I’ve always considered intellectuals to be the makers of grand plans based on ideas and research. Intellectual pursuits may be initiated by emotion but such hysteria is checked at the door. Solutions, to an intellectual mind, forecast tangible results or at least the potential for tangible results. Alternatively, many of the socialists I know are consumed by emotion. They see a problem and are driven to act. Reflexively responding to problems rarely reveals a cure. When time permits, my favorite debate to engage in with socialists is the issue of feeding the planet’s hungry populations. I’ve not met one that has played the scenario out in their mind beyond one or two dinner times. Maybe this is why. If you stop there the thought is warm and fuzzy. Imagine, a cute kid smiles while wolfing down a corn based soup… corn an American farmer couldn’t sell that year anyway. Why not? It’s such a beautiful “picture perfect” scenario. Only an evil capitalist would argue against it.

Here’s why not. USAID and the World Food Program have a serious responsibility to NOT create unsustainable aide scenarios. Would it be in anyone’s interest to facilitate the creation a populace of thousands in an infertile area? Imagine, a bad year for American corn farmers or for some reason the trucks can’t get through for a year and they all starve to death… the kid, the kid’s mother, father, sisters and brother, ALL DEAD. That’s not very warm and fuzzy, is it?

Rational intellectuals often become successful managers. Articulate socialists often elicit large contributions from successful intellectuals. While they can be found commingling in similar environments, they are most certainly different species.


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Can't Stop - Still unserious about Syria.
Posted by humint
On News/Activism 07/25/2006 12:56:23 PM PDT · 10 replies · 519+ views


NRO ^ | July 25, 2006 | Michael Ledeen
I suppose if you live long enough you get to see everything at least twice, and in recent days I’ve seen replays of two old blunders that I’d hoped I wouldn’t have to endure again. The first is the Friend Who Has Gone Too Far, and the second is the Enemy Who Is Really Our Friend. The first time I saw the Friend Who Has Gone Too Far was in December, 1981, a very long quarter-century ago. Reagan was finishing his first year in office, and the first signs of the fall of the Soviet Empire were bubbling to the...

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Syrian army now at its highest state of alert
Posted by humint to Old_Mil; r9etb; Bigh4u2; MplsSteve
On News/Activism 07/25/2006 11:45:25 AM PDT · 22 of 33

R9ETB: Why August 22nd? What is relevent about that date?

  1. That's the day the Iranians say they will respond to the 'offer' by the U.N. on their nuclear program.
  2. And August 23rd (1244) is when the Turks retook Jerusalem from the Crusaders.
  3. Something must be up: the Iranians probably have the bomb.

August 22--corresponding to the anniversary of the Prophet Muhammad's night journey from al-Aqsa to heaven


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Fight a democracy, kill the people
Posted by humint to Flavius
On News/Activism 07/24/2006 10:16:54 PM PDT · 8 of 13

Ultimately the chaos in the Middle East plays to US advantage.

It looks as if Israel has decided to fight the war the United States has been unable or unwilling to fight. The Bush administration has been saying the War on Terror is a global war for years but has not behaved as such. For what it’s worth the sectarian boundaries could hold the key to ending the violence. I however doubt it’s as simple as Spengler suggests. The militant Shiite crescent reaches to Israel’s northern border and in this context, any legitimate military campaign would push it back through Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and finally a decisive victory in Tehran. If this is the game plan, the U.S. has burnt incredible resources on Iraqi democracy. American efforts however have not gone up in flames yet. Saudi Arabia’s incredibly expensive construction projects are burning in Lebanon today. What a waste. Spengler left out Saudi Arabia’s generous contributions in the form of massive investment into Lebanon’s fledgling democracy at the behest of U.S. diplomats. Why would the United States want to undo all this work unless forecasts have just taken a turn for the worst? I don’t think this recent chaos plays to U.S. advantage at all; it’s plan B.

Tehran is engaged in a thermonuclear race. If it thwarted plan A, could it not thwart plan B? Spengler seems to think Israelis and Americans can fight the way the ancients did --- in a pre-Vietnam media environment. IMO the only way a democracy will ever be able to fight that way again is with an unambiguous and unfamiliar provocation by a specific enemy. Hezbollah delivered such a provocation to Israel while Syria has yet to do so. Israel would be foolish to target Syria without one as Spengler suggests. They would lose media momentum in the West. If Spengler’s fiscal forecast for Syria is accurate, Damascus will fall without a push from the Israelis Air Force regardless.

Good Post.


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al-Sadr's Mahdi Army Joining Hizballah's Fight
Posted by humint to Nathan Zachary
On Bloggers & Personal 07/24/2006 8:59:07 PM PDT · 11 of 18

NZ: I wonder if Kofi Annan will order him to stay home.

OMAR OF ITM: Sadr's "foreign relations bureau" is based in Beirut!


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al-Sadr's Mahdi Army Joining Hizballah's Fight
Posted by humint
On Bloggers & Personal 07/24/2006 8:42:04 PM PDT · 17 replies · 198+ views


Rapid Recon --- Threats Watch ^ | 24 July 2006 | Steve
The word out of Baghdad is that Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army appears ready to join fight, recruiting and training Iraqi men to fight alongside Hizballah in southern Lebanon. “We are choosing the men right now,” said Abu Mujtaba, who works in the loosely organized following of radical Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. “We are preparing the right men for the job.” Mr. Mujtaba, who was interviewed in Baghdad, said some of the men have had special training but did not specify what kind. Sheik al-Sadr’s black-clad armed militia numbers in the thousands, operates throughout central and southern Iraq and is thought...

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Iranian President's Got Game. But Which Game?
Posted by humint to M1 Garand 30-06
On News/Activism 07/24/2006 8:09:41 PM PDT · 7 of 7

ARTICLE: Ahmadinejad came to power last year bringing his own brand of reckless talk about Israel and Iran’s right to acquire nuclear technology. It is widely believed that in so doing, the president was ignoring the advice of his own government and even some of the ayatollahs who hold supreme power. If so, Ahmadinejad was demonstrating the same crowd-pleasing theatrics that made him a popular mayor of Tehran until he became president. While educated, wealthier citizens of the sprawling capital dismiss him as a buffoon, the president has rallied support among the poor, disenfranchised millions in other parts of the country… Ahmadinejad is fond of descending on a provincial town with little notice, assembling a crowd, and asking if their municipal services are working satisfactorily. When he hears the inevitable shouts of “No!” he has the local official in charge hauled before him for a tongue-lashing. It is a tactic borrowed from Reza Shah, the father of the monarch who was deposed by the revolution in 1978.

HISTORY: Hitler achieved in a brief period a complete solution to all the most intractable parliamentary problems of Weimar Germany, and his concept of fulfilling the needs of others whilst entering into power succeeded in such a manner as to carry enormous propaganda value to the German people. The people had been suffering the torments of un-resolvable parliamentary conflicts through so many short-lived administrations that Hitler's masterstroke was overwhelming. In the November 1933 one-party Elections, Nazism gained 92.2% of the Electorate. A euphoria swept Germany in the intervening months as the long-awaited nationalist and economic savior of the Reich fulfilled all his promises towards economic recovery. Preceding administrations had psychologically paved the way for dictatorship by having repeatedly acted without the consent or cooperation of the Reichstag. Dependent on flimsy alliances and existing under Decree Rule 48 for Presidential appointments, the Reichstag had one power alone, which was to precede a further and generally dreaded election with a vote of no confidence. The very concepts of democracy were subject to widespread disdain as a result of this inability to achieve lasting balance of administration.


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Blackwater: Inside America's Private Army
Posted by humint to IronJack
On News/Activism 07/23/2006 9:31:07 PM PDT · 47 of 52

HUMINT: Hence the need for strict oversight from a body that answers to the public.

IRONJACK: I hope you're not talking about the government! Not the United States GOVERNMENT! Of all the bodies that DON'T answer to the public, they have to rank at the top. To hand over control of these fighting men to that pool of nincompoops and photo-op fellow travelers would be to castrate your best bull. Absolutely foolish and self-defeating.

HUMINT: This is an excellent debate, thank you. Your logic is rooted firmly in contemporary reality while my disagreement with you, by design, is not. I disagree with you on both patriotic and ideological grounds. Ours is the argument of the day! Can American ideology continue to define the future, or do we as a nation abandon (even temporarily) the progressive ideas that continue to propagate free societies?

While I accept that the enemies of freedom are not bound by the rules of free societies, it is the responsibility of the overt leadership of free societies to overtly protect freedom. Having national leaders who protect freedom and propagate liberty are why I pay taxes, why I joined the military and why I salute the American flag. I’m not alone.

Unfortunately, in American society, the application of dominating force in the pursuit of our national interests is dishonorable to some people. This is the root cause of the problem! Fighting and dieing for America’s national interests is considered “dirty work” by a small but vocal group… In my mind, subcontracting this so called “dirty work” only facilitates that illusion. It dilutes America’s national identity of an aggressive, revolutionary and progressive society. Worse still, it abdicates the responsibility of our elected officials to establish among citizens that fighting and dieing for our values are virtuous acts.

The success of corporate armed forces is a sign of the times, but not necessarily the integrity, competence or collective wisdom of American governance. Apparently, your estimate of the US Government helps you establish the need for Blackwater. To me it suggests exactly the opposite.


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Blackwater: Inside America's Private Army
Posted by humint to IronJack
On News/Activism 07/23/2006 1:17:07 PM PDT · 41 of 52

They'll never be big enough to threaten the US. Besides, I suspect these people have stronger loyalties than that, even if they are primarily motivated by the dollar.

I hope your right... however, hope is not a strategy to protect liberty. It is necessary that corporate armed forces be subject to strict government oversight. We could quickly lose our collective prosperity if American businesses begin mimicking what's happening in Russia today. Alternatively, if the US is used as a base for corporate militants to break international law, the US government is ultimately responsible for such behavior.

There are a number of red lines here drawn in blood. At this point, I've no indication Blackwater has crossed any red lines or intends to do so. Regardless, caution is advised. Obviously the means and opportunity for corporate armed forces to diverge from the greater good exist. Hence the need for strict oversight from a body that answers to the public. None of my caution subtracts from the good that corporate armed forces have done. But they didn't do it for America, they did for their CEO.


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Slain G.I.'s ma spurs anti-war T-shirt ban
Posted by humint to admiralsn
On News/Activism 07/23/2006 12:57:37 PM PDT · 8 of 18

In other words, "I am sorry for your loss, but my hatred of President Bush far surpasses my sympathies."

This petty vendor is a cold blooded sociopath.


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Intelligence Dominance
Posted by humint to Lorianne
On News/Activism 07/23/2006 12:36:53 PM PDT · 3 of 4

When we're spending $40 billion a year on intelligence and committing 150,000 men to the Iraqi front, why can't we create the actionable intelligence required to roll up the insurgents?

It's not about money. It's never been about money. In fact, most of the time, intelligence dominance comes from the kind of relationships you cannot buy. Money cheapens those kinds of relationships. A fact that's probably tough to swallow for our corporate minded war fighters... Maybe they should stop scheduling meetings, and start building the kinds of relationships that invariably lead to intelligence dominance.


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Blackwater: Inside America's Private Army
Posted by humint to IronJack
On News/Activism 07/23/2006 12:05:03 PM PDT · 27 of 52

Frankly, if the governments of the world aren't going to confront the terrorist vermin, I prefer to see people like this doing it. These guys don't have to play by the rules. They can operate under the radar, and use tactics that the politicians consider too dirty. (You can bet SOP for extracting information isn't putting panties on some prisoner's head.) In short, they can get the job done while the preeners and posers are bloviating about "human rights" and similar gibberish, and American men and women are being killed.

Our government can’t subcontract itself away from responsibility. These guys do have to play by the rules. They just get paid more to die without expecting a ceremony. We’ve had unofficial folks working this way for years on G salaries. If the corporate interests of Blackwater ever diverge from the security interests of the American people, you'd better hope their SOP doesn’t include torture.


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Can we win the War on Terror as long as Iran and Syria remain unscathed?
Posted by humint to jeltz25; Jeff Head; Brad from Tennessee
On General/Chat 07/22/2006 9:57:24 PM PDT · 14 of 21

JH: Sooner or later, we will have to cut off the head of the snake.

BFT: Exactly. If you look at the American Civil War, the conflict didn't end until Sherman went into the deep south, destroyed industry, wrecked the transportation infrastructure and disrupted the region's ability to sustain their troops in the field. Strategic bombing of Iran would dry up world terrorism to the degree of damage done to Iran.

HUMINT: your analogy is interesting but sustaining terrorist troops in the field is done with rhetoric and ideology, not conventional logistics. The West facilitates Tehran’s terror masters by inventing and offering off the shelf communication technology. It also facilitates terror troops by offering educational opportunities as well as equal opportunity employment. A free and open society ultimately maintains terrorists in the field indefinitely.

That said, wrecking Syria and Iran’s infrastructure would do several things:

  1. demonstrate that creating and propagating hate rhetoric comes with consequences
  2. establish a level battle field for the organized, democratic opposition
  3. significantly set back Iran’s nuclear program rendering it unlikely to produce and deliver a warhead
  4. dedicate Iran’s petroleum revenue and savings toward infrastructure repairs as opposed to conventional weaponry and installation defense --- who is most likely to earn reconstruction revenue? Germany, France, Russia, China…
  5. temporarily increase anxiety in the region likely leading to more terror attempts in the West.
  6. open the door to lasting peace and regional stability.

Under the current circumstances peace and regional stability are a pipe dream.


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Iran Awaits Liberation
Posted by humint to freedom44
On News/Activism 07/22/2006 8:49:33 PM PDT · 15 of 23

ARTICLE: There are methods and resources. The international community is not completely powerless to support this in some other effective and tactical way. An amalgamation of the external pressure working with the internal force of the people would weaken and undermine the clerical government enormously...

HISTORY: February 1778 --- As a result of the patriot victory at Saratoga and American diplomatic efforts, France allies itself with the new American government. French financial and military aid will prove critical in winning the war. The Continental Army will learn of the French Alliance in May.

HUMINT: While Iranians are not in a colonial position to declare independence, the Iranian revolution is still afoot. Looking back at the rhetoric of the late seventies and early eighties in Iran… the streets were full of men and women thirsty for freedom. They were openly clashing with the fascists! It's still happening. The initial Iranian version of Saratoga occurred sometime ago and has reoccurred since. It has been an abysmal failure of the West, blind to the inner meaning of these unsettling instabilities. Granted, Iranian expatriates operate inharmoniously and are easily caricatured, (foolishly) by each other and the regime, but their passion for change is irrefutable.

Yes, the West can make great strides to amplify dissident tremors transforming them into a roaring earthquake. In the ensuing turbulence, great generals would emerge to take the fight to the fascist enemy! But could they do it in time? Could they forestall a nuclear armed Iran?

  • Maybe but we are talking about a nuclear threat… when talking WMD “maybe” just isn’t a good enough answer.

The least Iranian dissidents should do is work in concert with other forces of freedom. Imagine the alternative! Imagine a fight to end the Iranian threat without a chorus of Iranian democrats to set the stage for a lasting freedom in Iran… personally, I imagine …smoke, fire and more pain than these unharmonious Iranian dissidents can fathom today. Sad really…


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A Secret the Media Kept
Posted by humint to LdSentinal
On News/Activism 07/21/2006 8:25:52 PM PDT · 12 of 31

CORRECTION

In today's journalism world, I fear that some blogger or counterculture ideologue using journalism as a political tool rather than as a mechanism for dispensing straight information, would make the wrong call. I hope I'm wrong about that.

The oversight to publish has reduced drastically since 79. However I would not like to see the ocupational definition of journalist loosen because integrity is key to the job. The problem is that sociopaths and opportunists without integrity can publish almost as effectively as a journalist with integrity. It may be that our free press, certainly the press in Europe, has tipped in the favor of sociopaths and opportunists. I hope I’m wrong about that.


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A Secret the Media Kept
Posted by humint to LdSentinal
On News/Activism 07/21/2006 8:23:45 PM PDT · 11 of 31

In today's journalism world, I fear that some blogger or counterculture ideologue using journalism as a political tool rather than as a mechanism for dispensing straight information, would make the wrong call. I hope I'm wrong about that.

The oversight to publish has reduced drastically since the 79. I would like to see the ocupational definition of journalist loosen because integrity is key to the job. The problem is that sociopaths and opportunists without integrity can publish almost as effectively as a journalist with integrity. It may be that our free press, certainly the press in Europe, has tipped in the favor of sociopaths and opportunists. I hope I’m wrong about that.


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Myths Of Arab Democracy
Posted by humint to A. Pole
On News/Activism 07/20/2006 10:21:48 PM PDT · 49 of 61

Before Sept. 11, 2001, the crusade for Arab democracy was not a part of George Bush's mission or platform. Indeed, as a candidate, Bush promised a "humble" foreign policy, a purposeful contrast to Clinton's supposed campaign of hubris in Somalia and Bosnia.

This work looks backward when policy makers are obligated look forward. It’s their job to look forward and it isn’t easy. This author is guilty of a common trap. He gives too much attention to the immediate catalyst for war. The United States had numerous reasons for implementing their plan to transform the Middle East. The fact that this regional war started with nation building, what President Bush promised not to do in his campaign, is a testament to the faith the American people have in all mankind, including the people of the Middle East.

For more than two decades American officials have been deeply concerned about events in the Middle East and that is the true catalyst for this war. They’re embassy in Tehran seized, marine barracks bombed, embassies bombed in Africa, the USS Cole, and finally September 11. Each of these events added to pressure to act. Only a fool would pretend that plans were not made prior to September 11 to address these legitimate concerns. The fact is Americans couldn’t sleep through September 11 which is precisely why it was the immediate catalyst for implementing America’s war plan. A plan which appears to be fundamentally transforming the Middle East.

The article’s conclusion mentions blood but not whose blood. Achieving liberal democracy has been bloody throughout history. I assume that the argument over a response plan to the 9-11/ME threat wasn’t that democracy isn’t possible in the Middle East but whether it is possible under the infrastructure created by terrorists and dictators. Proportional response theory dictated the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Confident democrats dictated the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. None of whom BTW have lived through the bloodshed required to sit in their elected seats of power. Their ancestors died for their seats, and as each generation passes the meaning of their ancestor's sacrifice diminishes toward the abstract.

That said, many I’ve talked to have a firm grasp on history and are prepared to pay the price, under favorable circumstances, to win the war. I am confident they will do just that. They will win the war!

This pessimistic author has not put world events into historical context and is therefore unable to grasp the plans and decisions made by individuals elected by the American people. This author is also handicapped by cultural relativism. Under the auspices of globalization, cultural relativism is unacceptable. This author argues for return to Kissengerian policies of containment despite the march of globalization. The cat is not going back into the bag. I believed the policy of containment died when Saddam invaded Kuwait and President Clinton failed to understand that important dynamic.

And finally, unless history has lost all relevance, the success in any American war will continue to be measured in liberty, not blood.


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Why Not Involve Iran in Effort To Establish Order in Mideast? (Hysterically Funny Barf Alert!)
Posted by humint to A. Pole; Billthedrill; FARS; ClaireSolt; grey_whiskers
On News/Activism 07/20/2006 9:16:30 PM PDT · 14 of 22

Every war ultimately ends with talks.

As this is the opening sentence to his conclusion, I'm impressed that he’s openly acknowledging the US and Iran are at war. Unfortunately his pretext suggests he's only prepared for the unconditional surrender of the United States and her allies. Interestingly, Maleki represents Rafsanjani’s crew, but is less adept at double talk than their master. His words are completely without substance primarily because this phase of the American war with Iran was not started by his cadre, nor does he have the authority to negotiate a settlement to it.

After a second read… This work appears to be a sign of dissention in the fascist’s ranks. It’s a feeble gesture to Western powers that he is ready to make a deal when those that hold the reigns of power are not. Could he be the West’s chosen one, as Mohamed Khatemi was the West’s Ayatollah Gorbachev? No sir Maleki… not you.


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Experts challenge White House line on Iran's influence
Posted by humint
On News/Activism 07/17/2006 8:38:04 PM PDT · 17 replies · 705+ views


MSNBC ^ | 17 July 2006 | Guy Dinmore
...An Iranian expert, who is close to Tehran's thinking and did not wish to be identified, told the FT that Iran was not looking for a crisis in Lebanon at a critical moment in the nuclear diplomacy. He said Iran had received signals from members of the UN Security Council last week that it would be given more time to consider the west's proposals. It was inconceivable that Iran had ordered Hizbollah to take Israeli soldiers prisoner. Iran wanted a negotiated way out of the nuclear stand-off, he said. He argued that Israel's fierce retaliation for the abduction of the...

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Address to the Knesset by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
Posted by humint
On News/Activism 07/17/2006 1:55:23 PM PDT · 4 replies · 212+ views


ISRAEL MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS ^ | 17 Jul 2006 | OLMERT
On the Palestinian front, we will conduct a tireless battle until terror ceases, Gilad Shalit is returned home safely and the shooting of Qassam missiles stops.And in Lebanon, we will insist on compliance with the terms stipulated by the international community: The return of the hostages, Ehud (Udi) Goldwasser and Eldad Regev; A complete cease fire; Deployment of the Lebanese army in all of southern Lebanon; Expulsion of Hizbullah from the area, and fulfillment of United Nations Resolution 1559. Madam Speaker, Ladies and gentlemen, Members of Knesset, At the outset, I offer condolences, on my behalf and on behalf of...

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“Unique Moment of Unity”
Posted by humint
On News/Activism 07/17/2006 9:54:40 AM PDT · 3 replies · 251+ views


Front Page Magazine ^ | July 17, 2006 | Joel Mowbray
JERUSALEM—“Ariel Sharon would not have responded this strongly because he was so concerned with changing his image, and while Bibi would have done exactly the same thing as Olmert is, half of the country would have been protesting about what the ‘monster’ is doing,” explained former Israeli cabinet member and world-famous dissident Natan Sharansky. Choosing his words as he stirred his breakfast shake, Sharanksy suggested that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, with his center-left coalition, is perhaps the only leading figure capable of a muscular response to Hamas and Hezbollah that enjoy overwhelming public support. He seems almost relieved when he...

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Syria, Iran
Posted by humint to justa-hairyape; Tolik; A. Pole
On News/Activism 07/16/2006 11:42:32 PM PDT · 19 of 20

I think the U.S. 'Empire' represents a new kind of entity. The Romans directly taxed their 'provinces'. This was a good source of revenue for them. We conversely make quite a few investments in our 'provinces' (Marshall Plan, etc...). We do not tax them directly. They are free to determine their own form of governance, but if they turn their backs on democracy, we can turn our backs on them. Basically, World War II ended with the complete conquering of Europe. The west, called 'English' by Germans, conquered Western Europe. The east, called 'Mongols' by Germans, conquered Eastern Europe. During the Cold War that division was crystal clear. Which form of empire worked the best was determined when the west won the Cold War. Many former Eastern conquered nations, quickly joined the west and NATO. I think it was fare to call the Eastern Europe Nations conquered lands as part of the Eastern 'Mongol' Empire. The word empire is not accurately applied to the Western nations that were conquered by the Western 'English'. We may need a new word eventually.

I think the word you are looking for exists already and it’s ‘Globalization’. The United States, the world’s most able nation, does not even remotely resemble an ‘Empire’ with one exception, its incredible ability. I recently read a book writen in the 1950s which contained an interesting categorization of politically minded people:

  1. CONSERVATIVES: Believe nothing is new. Actors replay familiar scenarios upon a familiar stage.
  2. PESSIMISTS: Believe nothing is right. Actors are doomed to fail because of character flaws.
  3. LIBERALS: Believe the present is born of the past. Actors are capable of new behavior.
  4. REVOLUTIONARIES: Believe the present is irreparably damaged. Actors are obligated to behave anew.
  5. REACTIONARIES: Believe a new behavior has irreparably damaged the present. Actors return to familiar scenarios.

By this measure, the voice that names the United States an ‘Empire’ is a truly conservative voice. By this measure, the times we live in are both liberal and revolutionary. Certain enhancements in communications technologies, born of free and open societies, have created new actors, a new stage and entirely new behavior, aka ‘Globalization’. The first actors were American but we are not necessarily the most comfortable with it. There is no guarantee that globalization will indefinitely drive our success and by no means are Americans in control of it. There are societies with infrastructures better prepared than are own to adopt and succeed with the new tools of globalization. These future successes will not be dictated by a central authority in any imperial way. The fact is everyone is welcome on this new stage; it is of no consequence who built it.

Technically speaking, the real architects of globalization were not American, but philosophers who inspired Americans to behave in revolutionary ways. I believe many Americans take for granted how revolutionary our lives still are and how much our nation has changed in so short a time. We as a society are often dumbstruck with our own success and successes inspired by us. That said, not every step has been a step forward and a lot of blood has been spilt along the way. If one were to simply look at American falters I’d not be surprised that they might use the following phrases to blaspheme the Untied States and its leadership… its an Empire, because empire is historically familiar… its an Empire, because it is the most able nation on earth… its an Empire, because it is widely emulated… its an Empire, because it regularly engages in war…

The United States is not an ‘Empire’ because it is not in control of society nor does it seek to control society, but instead fights to eliminate arbitrary control over society. The United States is defined as anti-imperialist by its constitution and remains so to this day.


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It all boils down to Iran
Posted by humint to A. Pole; Billthedrill; kabar
On News/Activism 07/16/2006 8:24:30 PM PDT · 55 of 55

ARTICLE:Our aim instead should be to empower Iran's restive population, which is largely pro-Western and moderate. Give them as much support as possible, much as the Reagan administration did for Lech Walesa and Solidarity in Poland -- and let them find the means to reclaim their government for themselves.

APOLE: There is one key error Jeff Jacoby view (shared by many). The Solidarity was a popular movement against the regime imposed from outside. So was the Islamic Revolution against shah dictatorship (BTW both movements took place at similar time). Shah acquired dictatorial powers in 1953 through the coup against secular government of Mossadeq, thanks to the foreign support. The present Iranian regime does have real social base in Iran and does not need to rely on foreign sponsors.

The Iranian government has its origins in an ideological minority among Iranian society. Its power stems from its ability to create fanatics and a willingness to commit violence against the majority. History suggests that theirs is an extremely fragile system that survives on crisis and foreign sponsors who manifest in the form of oil and LNG contracts. The Iranian government represents isolationists, of which there could be many in Iran, but theirs is an agenda destined to fail.

The truth is, I harbor a deep sympathy for your perspective however, it is part and parcel to why Iranians suffer today. As the threat from Iran’s nuclear program looms larger, yours is a logic that is quickly becoming… unforgivable. It is an irrefutable fact that this and future Iranian governments are inextricably linked to global affairs. Iran has a real and tangible responsibility to other nations because of its contributions to the global energy trade. It is of no consequence that the Iranian people did not choose and may not even want partial responsibility for the global economy. Face it, if you’re an Iranian, your life in that country IS NOW, and for the foreseeable future, WILL BE, subject to foreign influence.

You’re right about Iran’s history with “foreign sponsors”, but why is it so repulsive? It’s repulsive because of the nature of Iranian leadership, not because of foreign sponsors. There are numerous examples of resource rich nations that leverage foreign influence to their advantage. It’s no accident that the responsibility for those successes goes to democratic leaders. Conversely, where there is a democracy deficit, resource rich nations are prone to give and receive violence. This should be a profound lesson to Iran’s regime change advocates. What is required by committed Iranian dissidents is to establish healthy and deeply interactive relationships with the democratic leadership of their future foreign sponsors. If Iranian dissidents try to limit their relationships and ignore the economic implications of their ambitions, they will not only fail themselves, they will fail the Iranian people.


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Syria, Iran
Posted by humint to Vn_survivor_67-68
On News/Activism 07/15/2006 10:39:35 PM PDT · 14 of 20

enemy of my enemy is friend? can it be that superficial?

Political relationships in the ME are convoluted to say the least. Determining friend from foe is rarely as simple as tracking sectarian boundaries. With regard to the Syrians, I estimate Ledeen is getting ahead of himself when we are basically waiting for Syria to make its next move. The next 72 hours are key.

What we do know is that the West has allies inside Lebanon right now. To me, these Israeli operations make it look like Tehran is going to lose its proxy force in Lebanon. Unfortunately, I cannot in good conscious relay a consensus opinion to you. I spoke with some friends this evening who are not nearly as optimistic as I am...

BTW Interesting Source



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Syria, Iran
Posted by humint to TWohlford; Prost1; FairOpinion
On News/Activism 07/15/2006 10:04:55 PM PDT · 5 of 20

Arab League: Mideast Peace Plan 'Dead'

...the group did not throw its support behind Hezbollah. Squabbles over the legitimacy of the rebel group's attacks on Israel — including the capture of two Israeli soldiers that sparked the 4-day battle — caused dissention in the ranks, delegates said. The Saudi foreign minister appeared to be leading a camp of ministers criticizing the guerrilla group's actions, calling them "unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts."


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Syria, Iran
Posted by humint
On News/Activism 07/15/2006 9:50:52 PM PDT · 19 replies · 950+ views


NRO Corner ^ | [Michael Ledeen]
John: You have wonderfully made my point by cheering speeches and words instead of actions. There is a real opportunity now. The Lebanese—even, a couple of hours ago, thousands of Lebanese in Paris—are demonstrating against Hezbollah and Syria and Iran. The Saudis and the Egyptians have publicly criticized Hezbollah, and for the first time in human memory have not blindly condemned Israel. They are taking a risk here, hoping that we will understand the gravity of the moment and the dimensions of the opportunity. The great opportunity, and indeed the just consequence of the attack against Israel, is to bring...

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Iran and Radical (Islamofacists) Push for War
Posted by humint to gopwinsin04
On News/Activism 07/15/2006 12:32:48 PM PDT · 27 of 33

In the Lebanon crisis, we have a terrifying glimpse of the future: Iran and its radical allies are pushing toward war.

Sure, Iran was apparently stupid enough to ask Hezbollah to pick a fight with Israel the day after Iran's answer regarding its nuclear program was due. The Iranians could've calculated the US would use its veto power at the UNSC to back Israeli retaliatory operations. The veto would subsequently serve to divide the UNSC over sanctioning Tehran for its nuclear program. But so what? We knew Tehran was willing to risk innocent Lebanese lives to satisfy their militant ambitions.

The fact is, the Bush Administration and the international community have put the miliplomatic ball firmly in Tehran’s court. It is up to Tehran to decide how far they want to escalate the nuclear/terror crisis. Every escalation they make, they should expect their allies to die or retreat. The next escalation in this war will be for Syria to replenish Hezbollah or for Iran to call on its Iraqi proxies such as Al-Sadr and open another front against American and allied Iraqi forces.

We should be angry the Iranians have gotten so many chances at redemption which amounts to too many bites at the apple of forgiveness. We should all be pissed Tehran is afforded so much control in this war they have started. Meanwhile, we should recognize that this is modern warfare. IMO, this is how wars will be fought in the Globalization Age, possibly beyond.


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The Timeline
Posted by humint to ClaireSolt
On News/Activism 07/15/2006 12:11:56 PM PDT · 24 of 27

I get the impression that this is just about Hezbollah in Lebanon. I don't see us fighting Syria and Iran. We are fomenting revolution in Iran, remember. Syria, I don't know.

Fomenting? I'd say politely suggesting 'Iranians make positive changes in Iran' is a more accurate assertion, but IMO the rest of your comment is on point. These Israeli ops appear engineered to break Hezbollah in Lebanon. When and how Hezbollah breaks will determine what happens next.

Sure, Iran was apparently stupid enough to ask Hezbollah to pick a fight with Israel the same day as Iran's answer regarding its nuclear program was due. The Iranians could've calculated the US would use its veto power at the UNSC to back Israeli retaliatory operations. The veto would subsequently serve to divide the UNSC over sanctioning Tehran for its nuclear program. But so what? We knew Tehran was willing to risk the Lebanese people to satisfy their militant ambitions.

The fact is, the Bush Administration and the international community have put the ball firmly in Tehran’s court. It is up to Tehran to decide how far they want to escalate the nuclear/terror crisis. Every escalation they make, they should expect their allies to die or retreat. The next escalation in this war will be for Syria to replenish Hezbollah or for Iran to call on its Iraqi proxies such as Al-Sadr and open another front against American and allied Iraqi forces.

ML has gotten ahead of himself again but that is exactly what visionaries are supposed to do. He’s been prepping his readers for this inevitable fight for years. Add to that, he’s probably pissed the Iranians have gotten so many chances at redemption; too many bites at the apple of forgiveness. We should all be pissed Tehran is afforded so much control in this war they have started while recognizing, this is modern warfare. IMO, this is how wars will be fought in the Globalization Age, possibly beyond.


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