By HUMINT
The alliances between insurgents, i.e. non-state actors has more to do with cultural compatibility than it does Western categories such as - Sunni, Shi’i, Iraqi, Irani, Syrian, Bathist, Al-Qaeda, IRGC and so on. The West is at war with an ideology fed by a blend of lies about the West, ME nationalism, self victimization, ME solidarity, Islamic righteousness, and petroleum revenue. The architecture of the threat can be seen if Westerners are willing to see it. The threat resembles fascism but there are no hard and fast rules of thumb Western officials can use to formulate policy.
This is why I believe the West is likely to lose the GWOT. Not today, not tomorrow but in the centuries ahead. Westerners should start thinking millennially if they have an ambition to win the GWOT. I fear they don’t. Most Westerners have trouble remembering what happened yesterday! Ask yourself, how socially repugnant is it when a Westerner articulates the superiority of their ideology? Is it not rare when a Westerner articulates their ideology at all? –These are not trivial problems…
Jeffersonian genius expects Westerners to make room for the expression of many ideologies in society. This is a beautiful concept that has made America strong, but not indefinitely. Jefferson saw the power of an ideologically competitive society. Unfortunately, Westerners today have misunderstood Jefferson’s major premise. Westerners often abstain from voicing their own ideology in their own society. This is dangerous! I forecast the West will lose the GWOT precisely because it is absent at home and abroad from the real war, the war of ideas. The ideological battlefield is utterly dominated by fascists and there is no Western force capable of confronting the fascist threat today, much less defeating it.
The point is, GWOT threats are ambiguous and often amorphous threats. They arise directly from the ambiguities of ME society. This is why Western categories are likely to cost more innocent lives than they save. One cannot resolve an ambiguous problem simply by organizing arbitrary categories. In any case, the answer to this problem is clear. The west needs an ideological army. The West needs to take the asymmetric war to the enemy’s doorstep. An ideological army can defeat asymmetric threats where superior technology alone cannot. After reading G. Washington, Admiral Lord Nelson, Machiavelli, Clausewitz, Mao, Peter the Great, Sun Tzu, Imam Ali, Che Guerra I believe Mao’s guerrilla tactics could work splendidly for the committed Jeffersonian – in the ME. The question is, can the West train and deploy Jeffersonians to the battle space? If the West started today, my pessimism would immediately change to optimism. The West could flip the ideological advantage overnight! Make no mistake, without the will to win our ideological fight – a cruel destiny awaits us all.
