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HUMINT: Iranian Bonsai M. DODGE THOMAS: There are good reasons why you don’t see modern examples of durable Theocratic regimes, and as the role of religion in public life changes in Iran reformers will at least have the advantage of living in a country that is already operating under a limited form of representative government that grew out of an authentic national revolution rather than being “imposed” from the outside. HUMINT: Broad generalizations about what "neocons" think or want aside - external economic pressure on Iran is causing a socio-political bonsai effect on the growth of that nation. Iranians, particularly Iranian officials who survived the Iran-Iraq War, have a warped identity that is deeply influenced by anti-identity. By anti-identity I am referring specifically to anti-Americanism. More importantly, Iranian instability today has a root cause that will no go away. The effect of the 1979 Revolution is completely disconnected from its cause. I think that’s the point that most people banking on "reform" miss. What you are talking about in terms of policy change in Iran is in fact personality change. For the Iranian government to survive as it is defined right now, it has to subject its populace to blatant psychological operations while simultaneously blocking external influences. Observing individuals approach Iran over the years I've come to realize something about all things external, in reference to Iran. We in the West are not talking about the unique nuances of diverse political platforms when we talk about reform in Iran. What we are actually talking about has more to do with Westerner's connectivity to the Iranian regime in terms of trade and influence. If you think relieving pressure on the Iranian regime is the best direction to move in, then consider these Qs. Do you think the privatization of Iran Air was because of internal pressure on the Iranian government? Do you think that had anything to do with public opinion? When a Rafsanjani figure or a Khatami figure stands in front of you, smiles and shakes your hand - what do you think he's thinking? Those kinds of people’s actions cannot venture too far from their toxic rhetoric without being labeled a “puppet” or “spy”, (remember the anti-identity syndrome) so don't pin your hopes on personality. I've no desire to rob you of your optimism about Iran but if you look at that country in terms of what it is saying as well as what it is doing, it is the most egregious abuser of democratic rhetoric to sustain tyrannical policy in the world. Look at what Ayatollahs do for a living. You're being bamboozled by career speech making spiritualists. The can spin any event to serve their interests as well as any Sigmund Freud disciple. If you’re banking on them to reform then I beg you, put them under your finest microscope and watch very closely. If you find evidence to contradict what I’m saying, by all means, post it in bold. |
