HUMINT: Iranian Bollox

Language of a draft at the UNSC is currently under debate, right now. From what I hear, Tehran is thinking that this sailor snatch might lead to a prisoner swap - Brits for Iranians in American custody. That sounds like an incredibly unlikely three-way to me. Nevertheless, the pattern of Iranian ops in Iraq leading up to this incident suggests they were trying to abduct American service members but were unable to do so. While the Shatt AlArab border dispute is mildly relevant, there are three reasons why this operation took place. The Global War on Terror, British rules of engagement and Iran's recent history with Britain --- converged to form a perfect storm. A similar event played out once before in 2004... That 2004 conclusion is undoubtedly expected to occur again in the very near future. But at what cost? A repeatedly humiliated Royal Navy? An emboldened Iranian theocracy? Anyway, Iran-Contra lessons learned, the Iranians are far more likely to get a taste of the USS Stennis this time. What is clear, the Iranians are in a hole and are only digging themselves in deeper thinking they can get out that way.

Is a U.S.-Iran War Inevitable?

Baer's thinking on Iran is brutally obvious.

  1. The Iranian Government misbehaves – Domestic human rights abuses, international terrorism
  2. West increases diplomatic pressure – Threatens military response
  3. The price of petroleum rises – boosting a paranoid government in Tehran

1, 2, 3 repeat until the quake takes down civil society in Iran. It’s an unstable cycle Robert…

Britain is Taking Right Approach with Iran

S/RES/1723 (2006)

Calling upon the international community, particularly countries in the region and Iraq’s neighbours, to support the Iraqi people in their pursuit of peace, stability, security, democracy, and prosperity, and noting that the successful implementation of this resolution will contribute to regional stability,

Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War - Article 17

Every prisoner of war, when questioned on the subject, is bound to give only his surname, first names and rank, date of birth, and army, regimental, personal or serial number, or failing this, equivalent information. If he wilfully infringes this rule, he may render himself liable to a restriction of the privileges accorded to his rank or status

Horatio Nelson, 1st Viscount Nelson

1797 was a full year for Nelson. On 14 February he was largely responsible for the British victory at the Battle of Cape St. Vincent. Here he showed his flair for dramatic and bold action. Under the command of Sir John Jervis, the British fleet was ordered to "tack in line," but Nelson disobeyed these orders and wore ship to alter course and prevent the Spanish fleet from escaping. He then boarded two enemy ships in succession, an unusual and bold move which was cheered by the whole fleet. Nelson himself led the boarding parties, which was not usually done by high ranking officers. In the aftermath of this victory, Nelson was knighted as a member of the Order of the Bath (hence the postnominal initials "KB"). In April of the same year he was promoted to Rear Admiral of the Blue, the ninth highest rank in the Royal Navy.




  • HUMINT: Iranian Bollox

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